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FX commentary EUR/USD January 9, 2012

I apologise for the recent gap in the EUR/USD commentary guys. As you can see we are having the site redeveloped and I was told not to post anything for a few days. A word of warning also. Its not finished and there will more than likely be another gap coming up in the coming weeks. Hopefully the last.

Getting to the issue at hand. The Euro has gapped down this morning and has had some strong follow thru. It has tested a daily support level at 1.2676 and has been firmly rejected for now. There is also 2 daily support levels right below this area from August. A solid close below these levels opens up seeing the 2010 lows fairly soon. Today I am expecting at least a test of the bottom of the gap or an attempt to close it during Asia or London today. I will be looking to see any loading up of shorts to jump in anywhere around the 1.2700 level.

As for news today there is a Mercozy meeting today and expect the same rhetoric as usual with an agreement to have an agreement LOL. They will also be discussing the PSI on the Greek bond haircuts. There has been talk that the IIF and Greece are expected to be closer to working out a deal. However I have also read that there are still some hold outs. It seems that some hedge funds and banks that hold substantial sums of Greek debt also hold Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and would rather take the insurance then take the haircut. Who in their right mind wouldn’t? Isn’t that the point of having insurance? This week is going to be interesting for sure. We also have some scheduled news of EZ investor confidence and German Industrial production. The more important being Ind. Prod. being expected to drop again and signal Germany could be entering recession. I will be watching the reaction to that also.

Be careful out there


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