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FX EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary April 3, 2012

Hi all

On Monday the EUR/USD did as expected and had a manipulation move to the upside before the 100 pip drop. Unfortunately I missed the entry and had to sit on the sidelines and watch. I did manage to get 30 pips off the GBP/JPY later in the day but wasnt happy to see so much left on the table in the 170 pip move. Oh well we cant catch every pip.

Today I am expecting more of the same with an hourly topping formation on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD. The Cable has made a clearer level 3 to the upside and exhibits the more choppy price action noted before the reversal. The Euro is seeing the same chop which tells me the Smart Money is loading up. However I also want to point out the daily chart. Looking there we see very clear 2 levels to the upside and the possibility for a third is high mainly because we are in April which is a historically stock rally month due to tax season as investors put money into stock portfolios before they file taxes. Considering that and the fact that risk currencies such as the Euro will get a bid also. All this considered I am thinking the Euro could break the highs and test the recent highs on the daily chart around 1.3480 or at least the daily 200EMA at 1.3448. Fundamentals aside I would prefer the short but I pay attention to them for this reason as its much nicer when we see them agree with technicals as the moves are more extended. At this point I am a bit biased to the upside for this reason but will be paying most attention to the manipulation outside the Asian session for clearer signals since we do have some conflict here.

Today is light with any scheduled news releases with PPI figures and  Final GDP from the Eurozone. These are minimum impact releases and should have little effect today. Then Factory Orders and Vehicle sales from the US. As long as factory orders comes out as or better than expected the risk on scenario should continue and the Euro will benefit. How much remains to be seen because of the decoupling theory so its entirely possible we still see the chop until after NFP Friday.

How low can they go?

No Im not talking about stocks or currencies here. I just want to point out to anybody who had not seen the article from the New York times over the weekend that found that Goldman Sachs owns or did own a large stake in the largest website for sex trafficking of under age girls. Check out this excerpt from the article.

THE biggest forum for sex trafficking of under-age girls in the United States appears to be a Web site called

This emporium for girls and women – some under age or forced into prostitution – is in turn owned by an opaque private company called Village Voice Media. Until now it has been unclear who the ultimate owners are.

That mystery is solved. The owners turn out to include private equity financiers, including Goldman Sachs with a 16 percent stake.

Goldman Sachs was mortified when I began inquiring last week about its stake in America’s leading Web site for prostitution ads. It began working frantically to unload its shares, and on Friday afternoon it called to say that it had just signed an agreement to sell its stake to management.

“We had no influence over operations,” Andrea Raphael, a Goldman Sachs spokeswoman, told me.

Let’s back up for a moment. There’s no doubt that many escort ads on Backpage are placed by consenting adults. But it’s equally clear that Backpage plays a major role in the trafficking of minors or women who are coerced. In one recent case in New York City, prosecutors say that a 15-year-old girl was drugged, tied up, raped and sold to johns through Backpage and other sites.

Now as you can see they about crapped their pants when the found out this news was getting out. However check out this part just a bit further down in the article.

That said, for more than six years Goldman has held a significant stake in a company notorious for ties to sex trafficking, and it sat on the company’s board for four of those years. There’s no indication that Goldman or anyone else ever used its ownership to urge Village Voice Media to drop escort ads or verify ages. Elizabeth L. McDougall, chief counsel for Village Voice Media, told me Friday that she was “unaware of any dissent” from owners.

I find it as appalling as any body to see such things but also think that Goldman is just getting what they deserve and hopefully (even though I doubt it) somebody at least loses their job. It is true that what goes around eventually comes around and it looks as though things may be coming full circle to the Vampire Squid.

Happy trading



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1 Comment

  1. Ali Amarsi
    Ali Amarsi April 03, 11:51

    I am very happy to read your daily commentary on EUR & GBP plus other comments.
    Thank you.

    Reply to this comment

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