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Fx EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Commentary June 8, 2012

Today we get a bit more clarity from the EUR/USD with a clearer third push to the upside. The last push was a few pips shy of a 90 pip run but still clarifies we should turn now that we are seeing at a topping formation. As I type this it is breaking yesterdays lows during the Asian session showing weakness and confirming even further. Today I will be looking for a test to the upside to short from. Either the Asian highs or even the yesterdays low if we get the decent push below it before London open.

I did manage to catch The Euro short during the US session as I listened to Bernanke speak to congress. I made the decision to hold on for the potential larger reversal and woke up stopped out at break even after it ran 50+ pips. Oh well on to the next trade.

The GBP/USD is showing even more clarity but showing that we should be headed up with a third push. This is about as clear as they get but I am somewhat concerned with the EUR/USD showing the reversal. That alone is no reason to not take the GBP trade but it does tell me that we can only have a couple scenarios if the long trade on the GBP/USD is going to play out. The first is the EUR/USD goes into a holding chop while they work the GBP/USD up and the EUR/GBP falls which is the higher probability. Or we see the EUR/GBP fall so much quicker than the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD can rise but may be limited. Of course lastly we could have the rare failure of getting the 3rd push on the GBP/USD. The first scenario being highest probability the way I see it. What would change that is the large push down during Asia and the test up with clear manipulation and I will know we are not going to get the third push. We will just have to wait and see but I am bias to the up move here.

Forex News Today

We dont have any significant data releases today from the Euro Zone with just a few Low impact events. The UK does have some inflation figures with PPI input and  Consumer Inflation Expectations but since inflation has been slowing in the UK and the figures are expected to show that. The market reaction should be subdued mainly because the expected  big move next from the BOE is adding to the Asset Purchases and this wont effect that substantially.

The US only ha sits Trade balance figures and I dont expect this will have much impact as a deviation here wont do much to add to the prospects of QE from helicopter Ben.

Interesting Point

I do try and find my readers an entertaining bit of information as I look through my news sources every day. Today I didnt see anything worth showing but did find this guest post at Zero Hedge and it reminded me of the thoughts I had back in 2008 when all this crap started and what should have happened then. Of course then I figured the elites and banksters were about to get their just rewards for all the financial fraud they had been perpetuating for the last decades. What I didnt bet on was how easy it would be for them to fool the people while they ramp it up to do their best to keep the monopoly going. Looking back I would have to say I was a bit naive. Not that I didnt know they would try but that the people would buy the bull and let it go on for so long. the fact is I am in a position where I have learned through my profession while the majority of the US population has no clue what they have been doing and the powers that be have designed the system so even the man on the street investor has not got the slightest clue. Hence the term we have often heard them referred to ( muppets).

This small excerpt from the article says it all. Enjoy

One of the great absurdities of our modern financial system is that a nation living within its means, i.e. spending less than what it confiscates in tax revenue, is no longer the norm. Living within your means is now considered ‘austerity’. And unfair. Whether in the UK, Europe, or North America, many voters have become so accustomed to the government’s massive role in the economy, they can’t begin to imagine how it could be scaled back. The more insolvent governments become, the more they’re going to be forced to axe all the things they can’t afford. We’re already starting to see this in places from California to England that can no longer hide from their fiscal reality. With the government monopoly out of the way, the private sector will mop up every service that it can turn a profit on– trash collection, security, fire, prisons, libraries, etc. This forces competition, higher quality service, and lower prices for everyone. The people who protest against austerity, or think it’s a tragedy when a courthouse closes down due to budget constraints, are really missing the larger point: the sooner this corrupt house of cards collapses, the better off we’ll all be.

Have a great weekend


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