GBP Bounces Back On Better GDP Figures April 1, 2015
UK GDP Data Strengthens GBP For Now
Although the UK GDP data was better than expected yesterday, causing strength in the GBP across the board. I have to admit that a tenth of a percent isnt really that impressive when it comes down to it. In reality I am pretty sure that the margin of error is more than that leaving the possibility that it actually be a tenth of a percent negative. In short, considering the big picture this alone is not going to get them raising rates unless there is much more data in coming days and weeks to back it up, which could happen even if I dont see it as a high probability. Having said that it dont mean they wont keep up the verbal intervention and threaten more often.
EUR/USD Makes Second Intraday Push
The push on the EUR/USD yesterday has opened the door for the test to the next lower daily level at 106.51 so I will have a bias for the short today looking to see the third intraday push. I will be slightly open for the long but only from a stop run to the lows at 107.12. We now have some small conviction above the 1.0774 level that is more likely to be false so if it pulls back then the Asian highs will be where I look to short first. Otherwise I will be looking for 1.0800 if they do manage a break higher.
GBP/USDS Rejects First Push
With the GBP/USD going back into the range yesterday I will be open on direction today. The fact that they did show the topping at 1.4864 does increase the probability for the short today they may push it higher to test the highs of the push down as well. As long as we don’t see any conviction during the London session I will be willing to short from the Asian highs around 1.4870. Although the the 1.4818 will be valid for a long the safer entry would be down at the lows at 1.4760 so I will need to see a lot of convincing to be taking the upper level for a long today.
EUR/JPY Makes The First Push From Range
The push on the EUR/JPY yesterday will make me bias for the short today looking for the set up at the current Asian highs of 129.00 level. If we get a push and conviction above there then the 129,29 level is valid but the 129.47 has higher probability. Since it is just a first push I will be open for the long preferring a stop run to yesterdays lows since they have already tested early today.
Forex News Today
The calendar is busy today with Manufacturing PMI data from most of Euro land. The German and EZ data will be the higher impact events if they miss but the French and Spanish data could get them going with a larger miss signaling better or worse EZ figures.
The UK also have Manufacturing PMI expected slightly better than the last print so I will be looking for the set up previous to the release.
The US has ADP Non Farm expected better at 225K but unless it misses big will likely be trumped by a Fed member speech depending on what they say and Manufacturing PMI if it deviates from the expected drop.
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