GBP/USD, EUR/USD Forex Commentary April 4, 2012
There is nothing like the Fed coming out and ruining my trade plan for the day. However it has made the charts a bit more clearer. At this point we do have the first leg down on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD but this should be looked at with a bit of caution as it was on the news and such a large fast move has potential for a deep retracement.
As we can see here on the hourly EUR/USD the 2nd leg intraday has begun in the Asian session and there is the possibility for the third push during the European market followed by the reversal for the pullback. At this point I wont be looking for a lot of pips on the reversal but will be willing to take the long providing we have a clear manipulation or trap move. Otherwise the longer term move should be down but remember level 1 trades can reverse back into level 3
The GBP/USD has had 3 pushes down at this point for over 170 pips and a reversal seems more likely for a short term retracement. This pair I will be looking for the bottoming formation and manipulation for that and if I miss the pullback trade then will want to see a trap move to the upside for the follow through to the downside. With the ECB rate decision and subsequent press release today things mat be quiet until then on both pairs.
There is a decent chunk of news releases today starting with Halifax HPI and Services PMI from the UK. These will be looked at closely since improvements in the housing sector will be good for the Pound and the Services PMI data is important because the UK is a service based economy so their purchase managers feeling good will also be a good sign. If these do surprise to the downside then the Pound will take the hit most notably against the JPY.
For the Eurozone there are the Retail sales figures (expected to drop) and German Factory Orders. With any further sign that Germany is feeling the crunch from the austerity forced around the EZ the chance of the recession creeping in there will be higher and they may actually let the ECB lower interest rates but remember that things really have to get bad before that will happen so dont expect a surprise in the ECB rate decision today. After the tate decision which will most likely be a non event as usual the press conference will be watched closely as usual and most will be looking for any hints of potential rate reductions in the future and Draghi will be grilled by reporters over Portugal and Spain the way I see it. So far those two countries have been able to avoid the news headlines but with a potential union strike on the horizon for Spain things could get headline worthy soon.
The news from the US will start with Treasury Sec Geithner Speaking and ADP nonfarm payroll shortly after then ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude oil Inventories and then some FED speak from member Williams. I do expect some choppy price action around this time and will wait until the markets calm down if I trade it at all. mainly due to the fact that 15 minutes after the ADP release is the start of the ECB press conference.
Be careful out there today guys.
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