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Gold And Silver Selling Off On USD Strength – November 5th 2015 Market Commentary

IMPORTANT: I just finished up and posted the trade results video for October. This month I not only illustrated the trade but I also showed how all the levels are pre-selected from the night before. Click the link below to check it out.

Trade Results For October 2015

US Dollar Pulling Gold And Silver Down

The US Dollar Index has taken off to the upside in the direction of the weekly stop run I pointed out in last weeks October 28th 2015 forex commentary. 98.30 and 100.30 are both strong potential stopping point for the Dollar Index, with the 100.30 area being major resistance. If that level breaks and hold then both silver and gold are likely to be headed towards fresh lows. Low and behold look at the daily chart stop run that started the latest move the the downside in Silver….I’m so surprised 🙂  I also posted another chart of the US Dollar Index Weekly chart. More than likely the strong dollar bias will remain active until we see a retest of the overall highs. I would be surprised if anything else would be able to stop the price advancing higher. Additionally, even if the market is going to push down soon they will likely create a stop run of the highs before doing so.

Silver Daily Chart - November 2015

Notice how silver has the inverse correlation to the US Dollar Index. While you will not always have a perfect correlation it can give you a directional bias for whatever you are trading whether it be silver or anything else containing the USD.

US Dollar Index Weekly Chart - November 2015

Euro Gives The Second Push Down

If you recall, yesterday we were looking for the second push to the downside on the EUR/USD. The only thing that was a little unusual is I still listed one lower manipulation point that I would have taken a long setup from if a stop run had occurred. Unfortunately we didn’t have an opportunity to capitalize on the second push to the downside. Additionally the market blew through the lower manipulation point and never satisfied the rules of a confirmation entry day trade setup. The best forex trading strategies know how to get you into the right trades, but more importantly, they know how to keep you out of the wrong trades!

For today I will only be looking for the third push to the downside from the listed areas in the chart.

EUR/USD Chart - November 5th 2015

GBP/USD Fails To Continue Move Up

Although I was not trading the Pound yesterday with a cycle bias I did feel like the higher probability push was to the upside which was obviously wrong. That why the additional trade filters are so critical. As the market pushed down we never provided a long setup from any listed manipulation point which was definitely a good thing given the price action. For today I’m keeping my directional bias open although the move down now looks to be the higher probability given the EUR/USD confirmed its cycle down today. With that being said the GBP/USD has a unique situation with the lower manipulation point as I would not go long from it like normal. I would only consider a stop run reversal off of the backside of this level for a continuation trade short which I made a point to illustrate in the chart.

GBP/USD Chart - November 5th 2015

Forex News For November 5th 2015

UK Official Bank Rate Vote 7:00 AM Eastern: This is definitely a big market mover if we get a surprise from the expected data. The expected vote is 1-0-8. The first number is those who voted for a hike and the second number is those who voted for a rate cut. The third number is those who voted to keep rates unchanged. A vote of 2-0-7 would send the GBP/USD to the upside and conversely a vote of 0-0-9 would create a major spike down.

UK Carney Speaks 7:45 AM Eastern: Anytime you have a rate decision you have comments that follow. The is generally the time when the biggest move occurs around recent rate decisions as most have been unchanged as far as the actual number.


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