Greece/Troika Go Down To The 11th Hour June 22, 2015
The Game Of Chicken Continues On A Greek Deal
With the Greeks given the ultimatum over the weekend we may just see the farce come to an end by the end of the day today. The ECB even posed their doubt that Greek banks may not be able to open today causing a more deeper bank run over the weekend.
I have to admit I am sick of even thinking about the Greek situation any more. There is a good possibility they have been planning it this way all along. Thinking that people will just get tired and burned out of even thinking about the whole deal and maybe, just maybe it will just go away. I have my doubts and to be honest, considering how everything has gone so far it probably wont be over today either. They will find some way to drag it out even further and give the can another boot. One can only hope that something does give today so they can start the necessary steps to get back on solid footing. However since a deal would mean a third bail out following two that have already failed something tells me that there will have to be a fourth and fifth down the road. Wasnt it Einstein that said “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting a different result”? Will they ever learn? Lets hope so.
EUR/USD Gaps Almost 30 Pips
We should probably get used to the Monday gaps on the EUR/USD for awhile. I am a little surprised it gapped to the upside but whatever ha ha. We do have a push to the downside so I will have a bias for the next push down today but if we do get any conviction above Fridays highs then a test to 1.1433 is more probable. The best level to get a short is 1.1384 but a test to Fridays highs is possible if they want to run stops there. The best level to look for a potential long is around 1.1295 but I prefer to be short looking to take profit if it reaches there.
GBP/USD In Hold Mode
With the GBP/USD going into a 50+ pip chop last Friday I can only assume they are waiting for the Greek fireworks to light off. Otherwise there may just be a lack of commitment on higher prices as they wait. I do think this pair has a higher probability of a push higher but thats no reason to have a bias on direction. the safer level to be looking for a long is down at 1.5804 but the 1.5840 is also valid. I will also consider a short from 1.5917 and only consider 1.5895 if it holds during Asia this morning as they widen the range to the downside before a test during London.
EUR/JPY Gaps Up Most Of Fridays Move
Since both the EU and UJ gapped up this morning the EUR/JPY as usual had a wider move gapping almost to last Fridays highs. Right now they seem to be buying Yen so we will have to wait and see if they will close the gap or hold last Thursdays lows on some Euro strength. There is a push down so I will have a bias for a move south today but if they cant manage to close the gap then the chance of this being a false push goes up. The best level to short is up at 139.88 while I will still consider a long from 139.03. I will watch the higher risk 139.28 level if there is no interest in closing the gap during London.
Forex News Today
The calendar is quiet during London today but we will likely get some tape bombs regarding Greece of course. There is a BOE member speaking as well that may just pump interest rate hikes for the UK causing some GBP strength. However Im pretty sure if there is anything significant from the Euro Group Meetings then they will be pushing on that most of the day.
The US does have Existing Home Sales expecting a significant increase. Considering this release has disappointed more often than not I think it has a higher chance of doing so again but I will be watching the revision as well since most of them have been positive. A disappointment on both the headline and revision should be more USD negative.
Asian session traders have Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI to watch tomorrow. A big miss here will have an effect on the AUD pairs.
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