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January 15, 2013 Commentary, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

The price action on the EUR/USD yesterday don’t really clear anything up for me as of yet. Going into a 67 pip chop does show that they may be ready to turn it but this could also be them loading up for the next push to the upside. The safest bet it to remain neutral and look to trade the manipulation from yesterdays high of 1.3403 or the lows of 1.3335.¬†

Having said that it would make sense that with a 380+ pip move from the lows they would be wanting to exit some of that position but there is also a combined Euro strength/USD weakness smell in the air so anything could happen today. At this point they may be waiting for more data before they make the next move.

1 hour chart of the EUR/USD on Jan. 15, 2013

The GBP/USD actually surprised me yesterday by making the second push. As I said in yesterdays commentary it was questionable at best considering that as the first push down with the price action it showed. however that is what they had in mind and we saw the drop blowing out the ADR before we saw the pullback. Its is now approaching the break out level of 1.6087 and finding some resistance. If this level can hold during Asia and we get price leaving the Asian box at the lows or in the middle the Asian highs will be valid for a stop run or the manipulation. Otherwise if this does break during Asia we will most likely see the test of the break out level of 1.6113. I should also point out that the 200 EMAs from the 15 minute, 1 hour and 4 hour charts are all hovering around the 1.6100 level so that may be where we see the manipulation today also. I would be happiest with the Euro breaking down also but the market rarely does exactly what I want. ūüôā

Update: The Asian high did hold so thats where I will be looking for the manipulation first today. it may not get there so with some clear manipulation slightly lower I may take the aggressive entry as long as I can get my stop above the Asian highs.

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1 hour chart of the GBP/USD on Jan. 15, 2013

Forex News Today

Scheduled releases are busier today starting with German CPI figures expected to remain unchanged. I have my doubts any surprise will be much more than a chance for manipulation so I¬†don’t¬†expect much form this.¬†

The UK has their CPI and PPI figures as well. CPI is expected to be no change while PPI is expected to increase slightly. Since the UK has been tolerating inflation for quite some time this is most likely a non event also. The big one is the BOE inflation letter also known as the UK economy is crap letter. (not my words but a UK member :)) Traders will be looking for any statements regarding the Asset Purchases and any clues to the BOE stopping or increasing them.

The US also has PPI data expected to drop slightly so I¬†don’t¬†expect much baring a large miss. There is also Retail Sales and Core retail Sales figures expected to be close to last release so without a big surprise here we most likely wont see much either. The New York Empire State Mfg Index is expected to improve to much better than the last disappointment and if it can surprise upwards we may see some USD strength.¬†

Happy Trading


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