January 28, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
There wasn’t much movement on the EUR/USD yesterday with price staying in the 65 pip range. There was some conviction to the downside and with an 80 average daily range its really close to qualifying as a second intraday push from the highs. This does give me a small bias for the next push down but I will still be open for the long due to this push being the first long term that leaves the chop from Friday. The best level to take the short from is 1.3679 but with current price only 5 pips away they have a good chance of pushing up to 1.3697 during the London session. As long as 1.3679 can hold during Asia and leave the Asian box closer to its lows it will be where I first look to short from. I would prefer to see the break out traders played at the lows first but with a clean set up and good entry its the best level. The only way I will consider a long is with the stop run to the lows having clear trapping patterns preferably seeing the breakout traders hit at the Asian highs during early London session.
The GBP/USD did not make the next push down showing a good example of how they go back and get the orders missed during an inefficient move. For those who aren’t familiar with inefficient moves they are just when price moves too fast in one direction for a length of time and will be seen as either several candles the same color and most of the time happens on news events. These are often retraced to get any orders that are still sitting there.
At this point price has gone into the range of the third push from last week with a first intraday push to the upside. I will be keeping an open mind on direction on this pair today with a small bias for the next push up to test the highs. Having said that with the same small bias for the down move on the Euro the probability of the direction being wrong for one pair goes up without a major move on the EUR/GBP. Of which we have seen more of lately but its not something to see as a higher probability.
The best level for the long I see is 1.6544 with it being proven support and 40 pips from yesterdays highs. If they break that I hope I have a short entry triggered with a stop run to yesterdays highs but if not I will look for the long at the hourly 200 EMA at 1.6507 during the New York session. Unless the Asian range widens substantially I don’t see its lows as being valid for entry long without getting the breakout traders at the highs first. The short entry is good from yesterdays highs with a clean stop run and clean trapping but I will want a good entry and wider Asian range during the London session.
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Forex News Today
The calendar starts off with GDP figures from the UK. Expectations are for a small increase in the quarterly numbers and almost a full percentage on the yearly. These both have the potential to surprise to the upside but I doubt it will be by much. If this does happen it will give them reason to run the second intraday push on the GU.
Later in the day the US has Durable goods orders. Considering the much worse than expected New Home sales yesterday this has a good chance to disappoint. Having said that they have set the bar pretty low with expectations so it might not be by much or as expected. The probability of it being better than expectations is low. A while later is the CB Consumer Confidence expected flat at 78.1, my thoughts are that consumers are still getting squeezed in the US and the potential for a disappointment is higher.
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