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January 7, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

At this point on the EUR/USD since it did not finish the third push yesterday, the best way to look at it is being in a third push chop with no clear direction. It did move enough for a first intraday push to the upside stopping short of the 4hr 200 ema so I will still be open for the short from the highs of 1.3652 or just above with a clear stop run to the 4hr 200. Otherwise the best place for a long is around the psych 1.3600 level. The only problem with that level is the lows 20 pips away so the set up there will need to be very clear to take the long. There is also the possibility they run it up from the Asian lows if they really have conviction of the print fest from the Fed continuing. Having said that taking the long from there is the highest risk trade today so what I would want to see is the playing of the breakout traders to the highs first and then again at the Asian lows.

My thoughts are that with stocks taking a hit for a bad start to the year along with the Janet Yellen confirmation yesterday (surprise surprise) they will be thinking she will soon be adding the 10 billion a month back into the QEternity program. Of which I do see the high probability of happening as well. This will create more USD weakness and the Euro will benefit. US data has also started out with disappointment adding more to fuel to the flames of probability that things are not getting better as they have been trying their best to get us to believe. On top of all that we have Non Farm Payroll Friday as well. This week we will be on our toes.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD gave us the prime example of why we can almost never believe any conviction moves that come during the Asian session. At least half the time they are fake outs only to be reversed by the London manipulator. Here again the safer trades will be from yesterdays highs or lows. Having said that the same applies here with a potential intraday push up and the daily low of 1.6394 holding with a daily close above it yesterday. The higher risk long is valid but I want to see it hold during Asia and price at least leave the Asian box close to the highs with a play on the breakout traders to the upside before testing again. If I do take the entry there I will be watching close and expect it to move off decent within an hour or so I will just exit break even.

All things considered I do feel the potential for the move up has the higher probability today but with Non Farm in a few days they may just hold the range on both pairs until the release providing we don’t get a big surprise from the BOE on their asset purchases. The probability of that is low since the data from the UK hasn’t been all that bad lately.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is light with no significant news so I expect either some pricing in of disappointing Non Farm figures with a break to the upside or the holding of the range while they wait for the release.

Happy Trading


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