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July 11, 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/JPY Analysis

The EUR/USD made a reversal for a first push down running 61 pips from the highs along with all the other risk related pairs and the equities markets as well. This is the first sign that risk tolerance is falling and could be the start of something bigger even though I have my doubts it will in the near future. I expect the big boys will be doing all they can to prop markets up as usual but I will be ready for the unexpected as well.

I will be bias for the second push down today while also considering its the end of the week and they may just hold price in this range while the do what they can to see that yesterdays lows in equities don’t get blown out to the downside. The best level I see for the short is 1.3618 at the hourly 200. Since there is a daily high close by I will expect that they may stop it a little short of that as well. Taking the entry will depend on the clarity of the trapping patterns and quality of my entry. I will be open for the long from 1.3590 if there is no clear entry for the short since there is a potential bottoming formation down there.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has shown the potential fake out as well but didn’t have the extended push mainly due to the UK being the cleanest dirty shirt economy wise these days. It does qualify as a intraday push with a move of 62 pips to the downside so all things considered with the fake out I will have a slight bias for the short here as well today. The level I will be looking at first is 1.7149 where the NY session pushed it but they may push as high as 1.7149 or try to test the highs so the set up will need to be clear. I will also be open for the long at 1.7109or yesterdays lows but prefer to be short waiting for them to break.

GU 1hr chart

The EUR/JPY made a spectacular 100+ pip run doubling its average daily range yesterday. With the move being rather efficient it shows there is some commitment to the push but with such a large push I will be cautious of a pullback before moving for another run down. The probability of it making the move on a Friday is lower but as long as the risk aversion holds today we will see it go. The best level for the short is up at 138.09 but considering the distance from current price they will more likely hold it at 137.89 if they push it down further during the Asian session this morning. If there is no entry short I will consider the long from the lows due to the daily 200 EMA at 137.76 getting good respect and what has held it from breaking lower so far. However if price spends most of the day below it through London the probability of the break goes up substantially.

EJ 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar today has inflation data from Germany and Spain today but I don’t see much probability for them causing a move barring a big miss. It will take something on the degree of Germany dropping below zero in order to cause a sustained move causing euro weakness.

Have a great weekend


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