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July 26, 2013 Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD

I had a sneaking suspicion that push down would be fake on the EUR/USD Wednesday. Sure enough bad news out of the UK gave them a reason to induce shorts only to come back and stop them all out with the New York ramp up. Today I will have a small bias for the next push up, however being Friday there is a good chance that it goes back into a third push chop scenario so I will still be open for the short if we can get a stop run to the highs at 1.3296. There is also a daily level there so I will be also looking for them to hold price and wont let it pass but it will need to be a good set up and entry while watching that hourly close.

The levels I will be looking to take the long from are Wednesdays highs at 1.3255 or just a bit lower at 1.3237

EUR/USD 1hr chart

The GBP/USD looks like it could have the first push up also but the small hourly close above the recent highs isn’t very convincing especially considering the rejection during the next hour and daily close below the level. I am expecting this pair to chop around back in the range so I will be cautious and have an open mind on direction. There is also a problem with identifying any significant levels on this pair. The 1.5356 is the best I see but with it really not getting much respect it may just turn up at the Asian lows but I would prefer a move down to the 1.5324 level for a long. The best place for a short is the Asian highs at this moment and is a daily level but if we see the hourly close above that its most likely going to test the highs where I will be open for the short also.

GBP/USD 1hr chart

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Forex News Today

There aren’t any high impact news events today so the likelihood of them keeping this range is rather high. Therefore if I do get a good entry I will only be looking for a short trade and take profit at 40-50 pips. There is medium impact Michigan Consumer Sentiment a couple hours after the US open. Expectations are for a slight rise and I don’t expect anything market moving with out a large miss.

Have a great weekend


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