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June 19,2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

Here we are with the big Bernak day. To taper or not to taper, that is the question. My thoughts are no they wont but there will likely be some changes to the statement that get gets the big boys (and their algos) underwear in a bundle. It will be a good day to just sit around and watch the craziness or take the day off and relax on the beach. Too bad its raining and we are getting the tail end of a typhoon or that’s where I would be today.

Considering price action alone we do have a first push up on the EUR/USD but it sure is an ugly one. If this were a normal day I would be having a small bias for the long and looking at the 1.3380 as the best place to see the manipulation during the London session. Otherwise the volatility could easily push as low as 1.3350 or even lower if by chance Bernanke does mention anything solid on tapering off the bond/MBS purchases. The chance for the short will only be with a clear stop run to the highs of 1.3414.

EUR/USD 1hr chart June 19, 2013

The GBP/USD took a bit of a thrashing yesterday with a 150+ pip push down all thanks to the EUR/GBP going on a tear. The better than expected ZEW along with a tick up in the UK CPI figures shouldn’t have warranted such a move but as I have said many times, nothing surprises me these days. The GU did retrace a large chunk of the move to close back inside the third push chop so the first push down is questionable especially considering what day it is. The best levels I see for a short are the 1.5655 and 1.5679 while the daily level at 1.5615 that held yesterday is still valid I will want to see it tested again today and hold during Asia for the potential long. If we get the hourly close below there during London I will be looking to short with some manipulation either at the Asian lows or highs.

GBP/USD 1hr chart June 19, 2013

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Forex News Today

There are a couple of events on the calendar before Bernanke that are of importance and could get the ball rolling before Ben takes the stage. Early in the London session there is the BOE meeting Minutes which will have potential to move at least the GBP/USD if there is any hinting either way on their asset purchases. There has been talk of creating the largest bond bubble in history so its not at all clear what they might be discussing in the Minutes so if you are trading today keep an eye on the timing of the release.

Germany also has a 10yr bund auction which has potential if it goes bad but I doubt that will happen. It is worth watching though.

Then of course late in the day is Bernanke and the question of the month will get an answer of sorts. Most likely there will be a jumble of words but he will be careful.  Trying not to hint too much so the markets will remain calm. Its going to be fun to watch if I am at my desk.

Happy Trading


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