June 24, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis
We did see the third push we expected on both the EUR/USD and GBP/USD Friday. Even though the bias wasn’t as strong as I like due to the large two pushes, they did finish up the plan with another 150+ pip run to the downside. Good job to the members who emailed us on catching the last two pushes.
Today we should be seeing the reversal so that will be what I have a small bias for with a stop run to the Asian lows during the London session. However the pullback during the end of the US session Friday was lackluster at best so I will be open for the short and extended push from either Fridays close at 1.3118 where we have yet to see the gap from this morning close during London. if it closes during the Asian session then it may push as high as the 1.3144 or 1.3156 levels which would be all I would be looking for if I did manage to get the entry long for the reversal with a stop run to the current Asia lows at 1.3089.
With the GBP/USD showing its third push the reversal has good potential also. However if the sell off continues in equities, bonds and commodities this will continue to the downside along with the Euro. The only place I will consider the long is the stop run to the lows Friday that have held nicely after the gap this morning. Otherwise if we don’t see the gap close during Asia here also I will consider the 1.5414 for a short. It will have to be a pretty set up due to the aggressive nature of the level but there is a decent chance we will get the manipulation there as London closes the gap. Otherwise the 4 hour 200 EMA has a good chance at 1.5430 since it has been getting some decent respect and lastly if those don’t hold the 1.5449 level will be the last place I expect to see the manipulation for the short.
Having said that the bias here is for the long and at least a pullback if they do intend to push it down again today.
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Forex News Today
The Economic Calendar is light today with just the German IFO Business Climate for the London session. Its expected to rise slightly but if the sell off continues I don’t expect it to matter much even if it surprises to the upside.
The US has fed member Fisher speaking late in the day but his views are well known so unless he changes in a significant way it wont mean much either.
With the sell of last week I do expect some scrambling to keep equities from continuing the free fall but that may not happen until after they fall further of which will drag the Euro and GBP/USD with them. I will be watching for any tape bombs regarding the Fed or ECB.
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