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Looking For Third Push Down In EUR/USD – March 1st 2016 Forex Analysis

Second Push Down For EUR/USD

The EUR/USD did exactly what we were looking for yesterday, except for give enough pullback to trigger the entry. I was up way later than I should have been and watch the Euro come back into our first upper manipulation point. We had a first push down the day prior and therefore we were only looking for the second push to the downside based on our short term market trend. After creating a stop run and confirmation down from our first upper point, there was never enough pullback to trigger the entry. Our entry criteria is critical to our high reward to risk day trade setups. As always, the number of trades you take is irrelevant if your not taking quality forex trade setups. The analysis for today is rather simple for the EUR/USD. With yesterday’s second push to the downside we will be looking for the third push down and we have one upper manipulation point from which we will look for a stop run short to occur.

EUR/USD Chart - March 1st 2016

Fresh Lows For GBP/USD

The GBP/USD continues to gently slide lower, only to recover slightly through the remainder of the day. The last time we were in this area was 2009 and therefore any lower manipulation point will have to be a point that is recent. The lows on the Pound illustrate a nice point in regards to liquidity which is the key to the DTFL trading strategy. If the current lows from yesterday break then everyone on the long side of the GBP/USD officially goes underwater. Think about that for a second as this illustrates what we look for daily, but on a larger scale. This principal is what we apply to the selection of smaller liquidity points day after day. For those of you who are members, be sure to watch the daily market preview video tonight as I go in greater detail on this topic as it is a solid learning point. For today, I will continue to keep directional bias open for the GBP/USD as our cycle criteria has not been satisfied. To start the day I have rather limited manipulation points to choose from with only one upper and one lower level from which I would take any valid stop run.

GBP/USD Chart - March 1st 2016

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Forex Market News For March 1st 2016

UK Manufacturing PMI 4:30 AM Eastern: Manufacturing PMI is a rather large spiker when a sizable deviation from the expected number is hit. Looking back over the past year we have continued to slide further towards that 50 which has shown the potential contraction in industry. Remember anything over 50 is industry expansion and anything below 50 is contraction. With the exception of one freak number which was much higher than expected I would expect this continued slide down to continue. For this month 52 is the expected number.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI 10:00 AM Eastern: Continued follow through in the direction of the spike has been slightly better than 50% when a decent deviation is hit. Overall it doesn’t spike over 15+ pips very often but it is very much capable of doing so. This month 48.5 is the expected number.

-Sterling

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