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March 12, 2014 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD did show some conviction to the downside yesterday so I will have a small bias for a push down today. I don’t like that in order to count the move as a push it needs two days worth of movement so I will still be open for a long with a stop run to the lows if there is no clear entry for the short. The best level for the short is 1.3875 just below yesterdays highs but they may run stops above yesterdays highs or even push to 1.3896 before the move off. Otherwise if there is nothing clear to get me short I will look for the long at yesterdays lows of 1.3833. Of course watching for any conviction below those lows to try and exit with a smaller hit.

On a side note, the entry I took short during the room yesterday moved off 27 pips and came back during the US session to knock me out break even.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD has shown the same conviction to the downside but also looking to be going into a third push chop. At this point I will still be bias for the short but open or the long at yesterdays lows where the four hour 200 EMA is sitting and it found support yesterday. The best level to short from is around yesterdays highs at 1.6647 but if it can push down during Asian to test the lows first then the Asian highs come into play. If I miss the short and it gets the conviction below yesterdays lows then I will be looking for the pullback and the backside entry at the Asian lows.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is light again today with only a few medium impact events to keep an eye on for big misses. During the London session the only one I see making waves potentially is the Euro Zone Industrial production. Expectations are for a rise to positive territory and if it misses below zero the Euro should weaken. Otherwise it will take a larger miss to the upside to strengthen.

Late in the trading day the US has a 10yr treasury auction and this will only create volatility if the rate pops above 35 which is doubtful with the Fed buying everything under the sun. The other is the Federal Budget Balance which for the most part never has much impact.

For the Asian session traders out there you will have the interest rate decision from the RBNZ with an expectation of an increase. This could be a wild one if they disappoint and don’t increase to 2.75%. A couple hours later is the Aussie Employment Change and Unemployment rate so keep an eye out for a big miss there.

Happy Trading


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