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March 26, 2014 Daily Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD

The movement on the EUR/USD yesterday shows more that there is no plan for pushes as of now so I will be looking to trade from yesterdays highs for a short or the 1.3762 level for a long. Otherwise I will want to see some conviction to get a bias on direction. There is the small chance that they only push to the four hour 200 EMA since it has been holding well as of late but with the hourly 200 holding the highs it will take that conviction to break this pair either way. I will be open for entries at either of the EMAs but the set up will need to be clear. Otherwise the safer trades will be at the high or low yesterday.

Having said that it seems as though the potential melt down is gaining traction. Time will tell the story and one would think that they will do something to try and maintain stability but like I have mentioned in other commentaries it may just be too late by the time they do anything. There have been bank runs starting in China which means capital controls eventually. Once they start that then the probability of all confidence going the way of the Do-Do increases and that’s the point where its too late for any central bank stepping in. Then we will get the correction the world needed years ago and can start fresh again. We can only hope that the authorities do the right thing and throw the ones who caused the whole mess in jail or I have a feeling that the people may just take matters into their own hand.

EU 1hr chart

Not much has changed with the GBP/USD either today. The move and daily close at the highs yesterday does show that the thrust up Monday may not be a fake out but we wont know that for sure until they show some conviction above yesterdays highs. I do see the 1.6553 level as a little more significant than the highs yesterday and would prefer a stop run there for a short but will be happy with a good set up a little lower as well. The best level for a potential long is at 1.6480 but they may hold the 1.6500 level as well. I will need to see the typical playing of the break out traders to take the more aggressive entry there.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar during the London session is slow with some Fed speak early on from Bullard. I have my doubts he will have anything moving to say but if he does show how committed the Fed is on tapering and eventually raising rates the we may see some USD strength. Otherwise there is GfK German Consumer Climate. With the data yesterday disappointing slightly this has the same probability or should at least be close to expectations.

The US has Durable Goods figures with the bar set pretty low. I expect this to be close also due to the New Home Sales disappointment yesterday. There is the possibility that it miss to the upside with how low expectations are but it shouldn’t be enough to do much but give them a chance to manipulate.

Happy Trading


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