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March 31st 2014 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

Its looks as though the first push we had on the EUR/USD last week may have been false with a rather stiff reversal Friday. At this point its best to not have a bias on direction and be looking for the manipulation at the high at 1.3772 for the short or 1.3705 for the long. There is one scenario I will be open for the long at the middle of the range with Thursdays lows at 1.3730 but will want to see them push up during the Asian session before testing during London. Otherwise there is still the chance that they keep the pushes going down and having the four hour EMA hovering just above the highs Friday I will be happy to short from there with a clean set up looking to either watch as it approaches the lows or taking profit just above them if I cant watch.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD did make a half hearted attempt at the third push so it ay be in for the reversal today. What does have me a little concerned is needs the gap up this morning to make the 63 pip run which is short for a push. Having said that the gap looks more to be a fake out so I will have the small bias for the short while remain open for the long if I miss the short from Fridays highs. The 1.6653 level is best being a daily level from the past along with Thursdays and Fridays highs just below. The 1.6600 psych level will be best for the long but I will want a nice set up with both the four hour and one hour 200 EMAs just below.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar starts off with German retail sales data expected to drop below zero. Having the bar set that low it will need to disappoint to get much of reaction while any miss to the upside will need to be above zero to cause some Euro strength. The French GDP data could cause a stir but I have my doubts barring a big miss. Later in the London session is Euro Zone CPI data seen as a high impact even but in order to cause much Euro weakness will need to get below zero to cause a deflation scare but with the Bundesbank holding their stance on ECB money printing they will need much more bad data before they have the potential of giving in which may also never happen.

The US session has Chicago PMI released just before a Janet Yellen speech so we probably wont see much from that but potential manipulation. The speech will be watched close for any signs of her softening her stance on the taper and potential interest rate rises sooner than anybody thinks. So far the markets seen to be in question if she is serious given her ultra dove stance while Bernanke was the boss. Now it would seem she has changed her mind somewhat but my thoughts are the big boys know eventually she will have to ramp up the press again but that may be far off the way things look right now. I am surely curious myself.

Late in the day BOE Governor Carney has a speech also so if I am in a GU trade I will want to have my stop to break even or just close it before I go to bed.

Happy Trading


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