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Markets Likely Slow Ahead Of FOMC June 17, 2015

Expect A Slow Day Ahead Of Fed Statement.

Of course as soon as I say the markets will be slow before the FOMC release today there will probably be a tape bomb of sorts that get them pushing. Otherwise data releases are busy for the UK with the BOE Meeting Minutes, Unemployment data, and Average Earnings during the London session today. What they will be on the look out for is any change in the vote count which is doubtful, however if there is any thing in the minutes that suggest that could change at the next meeting. Again thats doubtful but possible considering the data from the UK has been fairly good unless we see more disappointments down the road like yesterday. Average Earnings has been on an upswing so a disappointment today should create some GBP weakness and opposite if its as expected or better.

I do highly doubt the Fed is going to do anything with rates today but they may hint more toward the hike in September causing some USD strength. Otherwise if they do talk more of the disappointing data the probability for a hike at the next meeting will go down and cause USD weakness. I have seen some that think they wont be doing anything until mid 2016 but my thoughts are that waiting that long may be too late if data worsens through the rest of the year. If I am correct then we will never get a rate increase and they are more likely to run the printer again next year. Lets hope I am wrong.  🙂

EUR/USD Runs Stops Before Return to Chop

The move on the EUR/USD yesterday shows they dont have the conviction to push it out of the chop just yet. They might after the FOMC today but I think it will take something big and with the Greece situation becoming more desperate the chance of a push to the upside gets lower by the minute.

As usual in a chop the safer entries will be at the extremes but the 1.1265 and 1.1294 levels are valid carrying more risk so I will need to see more than one trapping pattern to take any short from them.

EURUSD 6-17-2015

GBP/USD Runs Third Push

The GBP/USD ran its third push from my lower level yesterday showing a nice trap at the lows but the risk was a bit too much for me on the pullback. I know some members caught it so good job guys.

Today I will be more open on direction but since there isnt any topping as of yet there is a good chance that they test the daily highs around 1.5700 before a decent pullback. Having said that the potential does go down with it being FOMC day. The best level for a long is 1.5623 or just below at the daily high thats still valid. If that dont stop it and/or the UK data is disappointing then a run to the lows around 1.5545 is more likely. I will only be open for the short from yesterdays highs or if we get some conviction below 1.5606 and get a continuation entry on a retest.

GBPUSD 6-17-2015

EUR/JPY Runs Stops With EU

The EUR/JPY also went back to the chop so today I will be open on direction yet again. Since it looks like they have soaked up any liquidity above 139.33 I will be open for a short there looking for more than a single trap. Otherwise its safer to wait for the extremes as with the EU. I will be open for the long at 138.49 but cautious of a dip to run stops to yesterdays lows.

EURJPY 6-17-2015


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