Massive NFP Disappointment Lowers Rate Hike Potential 4-6-2015
Fed Rate Hikes Likely On Hold After NFP Disappointment
I know I have said many times that the Fed wont be raising rates anytime soon even though they keep up the threats all the time. However considering that the jobs data coming from the US has slowed to a trickle while the energy sector is bleeding jobs at these oil prices, the probability that Yellen and her cronies at the Fed will have to admit that a rate lift off is not in the cards at this time. To quote Ben Bernanke once he found truth conveniently after he left the Fed “Interest Rates will NOT normalize in my lifetime”
EUR/USD Makes Second Push On NFP Figures
Today I will only be looking for the long on the EUR/USD. Since we have a second push and the weak USD on the news last Friday the probability of a failed second push is extremely low. The best level is down at 1.0965 where the four hour 200 sits for confluence but considering the morning gap has closed for the most part I will consider the Asian lows for an entry during London today. If they do manage any conviction below 1.0965 during the London session then I will wait for the test of 1.0919 to look for the long.
GBP/USD Runs First Push From Range
With the GBP/USD only showing the first push from the range last week I will be more open for the short from the highs but the weakness in the USD should prevail for now until we start seeing more negative data from the UK. The best level is down at 1.4891 but the Asian lows holding the psych 1.4900 may be where they make the turn as well today. In order to consider a short I prefer a stop run to Fridays highs with enough price action showing they wont let price rise.
EUR/JPY Runs Third Intraday Push
With the EUR/JPY running shorter term pushes right now I will be open on direction for this pair. As long as the Friday close holds it will be a level to consider but the 130.45 is better for a long. I will consider the short from 130.90 but if the EU is breaking out I will hold off.
Forex News Today
The London session is likely to be slow today since most European Markets are closed for Easter still. Otherwise there is a Fed member speech they will be watching to see if they are dropping thoughts of rate hikes. There is also US ISM Non Manufacturing PMI expecting a drop but still above the 50 expansion so will need a big miss to make them push.
Tomorrows Asian session has Aussie Retail Sales followed by the RBA Rate decision. They arent expected to lower rates like they were last time but keep in mind these guys like to surprise.
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