May 10, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary
Again we have yet another false push up on the EUR/USD and potentially two intraday pushes down or a first push long term. Having said that I will be treating this as a first push scenario and be open for a long also. With the smart money not paying much attention to the usual cycles I will be looking more at the hourly conviction close to get a better bias on direction. I am convinced that my assessment last week that this range is going to hold. Most likely until we get some clear news that gives them a reason to get back to the more normal cycles. Since it is at the bottom of the range at this point I will be looking for the hourly conviction close during the London session above the 1.3045 level, then look for the manipulation to the downside for a long position. Of course I will have a small bias for the short but I want to see the stop run above 1.3045. If the Asian session does end up making the push with an hourly close above that level I will consider a short around the 4 hour 200EMA at 1.3067. The reason is the hourly conviction close during the Asian session means less due to the fact they will use that to manipulate traders while they accumulate against it.
The GBP/USD has the same false push up as the Euro along with the first long term push down but I will be treating it the same as the Euro keeping my mind open on direction. The resistance at the high at the end of the US session is holding well during Asia so I will consider a short from a stop run to 1.5456 but with the conviction close above that level during the London I will change to a long bias and wait for the manipulation to the downside for the long position. I will also be open for a stop run to the lows of 1.5424 for a long but if it makes the hourly close below I will close for a small loss and look to short. I do prefer a short but want to see the Asian range widen up a bit before the stop run to 1.5456.
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Forex News Today
The only important events on the calendar are the G7 Meetings that start today so the potential for tape bombs is high. Other than that helicopter Ben Bernanke has a speech in the first couple hours of the US session. Im sure the big boys will be looking to see if there was any truth to the rumor yesterday that the Fed will be slowing their QEternity print fest. I have my doubts there was any truth to that but I will admit there has been some talk from some Fed members on the issue. Having said that I agree with what I have been seeing that they really cant and the potential for an increase is higher than the chance they will slow.
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