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May 17, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

As I look at the EUR/USD this morning it sure looks like we may have a failed second push. I am not totally convinced until we get the hourly close above the 1.2940 level. That coupled with the way the market closed tells me the probability for them inducing longs to push out short positions is high. Therefore today I will be open on my bias and look to see the manipulation either at 1.2855 or preferably at the lows of 1.2842 for a long position. Otherwise the levels for potential shorts are the Asian highs at 1.2889 but I will want to see the Asian range widen up first. Then the 1.2912 looks better or a stop run above 1.2929 would get me short also.

EUR/USD 1hr chart May 17, 2013

The GBP/USD did give us the reversal I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. I have to admit I wasn’t convinced it was going to do it since it never gave the stop run or test for sellers below the daily 1.5195 level but there was some not so clear patterns showing that they potentially wouldn’t let it get below the level. They weren’t what I wanted to see since the overall lows were within the distance I needed for a safe stop so I didn’t take the entry. My poor buddy Daniel did take it but got poked out at break even just before it ran off with out him but I cant say I blame him for moving the stop to BE on a trade that wasn’t that clear it was going his direction. Nice try though buddy!

Here again I will be keeping an open mind with a small bias for the second push up. Since we already have a 47 pip range this morning as long as these Asian lows hold I will consider the long at a stop run below 1.5235 during the London session but I will also want to see the clear manipulation there. Otherwise the potential for a short are at the Asian highs at 1.5280, the psych level of 1.5300 or the overall highs of 1.5321.

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GBP/USD 1hr chart May 17, 2013

 Forex News Today

In short there is no high impact news today so we may not see much movement with conviction of a direction.

Have a great weekend everybody


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