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May 28, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Commentary

Back to business as usual today. I hope all had a great day off and enjoyed the videos I posted yesterday. The markets did as expected and were stuck in a small range with the exception of the Yen pairs which did see some movement but was still well below their average daily range. All in all a quiet day.

Im not going to hold to a bias on direction on the EUR/USD today mainly because we are at the end of the month and just had the holiday. Having said that I do see the higher probability for the move to the upside considering the price action with 2 pushes up last week. What concerns me is the head and shoulders pattern we have inside this range showing the potential for a reversal along with the end of month flows potentially driving price down. What I will be wanting to see is some reaction at yesterdays high/low for a stop run or potentially the hourly conviction close giving me more clues on direction for today. Looking at 1.2947 and 1.2911 respectively. I should also say that these are not lines in the sand but an area due to the reactions behind in price.

Now that we have this move during the beginning of Asia I may have to rethink my plan for today depending on how this hourly candle closes. If it does continue and close on its lows I will be looking for the pullback during the London session and be bias for the short. I usually don’t consider these conviction candles to be a good sing of direction during the Asian session but this is a move that stands out.

EUR/USD 1hr chart May 28, 2013

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The GBP/USD is showing the same push to the downside showing the USD strength this morning. The Euro definitely seems weaker at this point but we will have to see what happens during the London session. As with the Euro I can see 2 pushes up but the toping formation at 1.5155 and a lower close yesterday shows the potential for the reversal so I am keeping an open mind on direction. If it can continue this down move I will look at the Asian highs for a short at 1.5112 since its also the level late yesterday. If we do see a larger move down the test of yesterdays lows at 1.5086 may be all we see for the pullback.

GBP/USD 1hr chart May 28, 2013

Forex News Today

In short there is no news worth mentioning today. Even this jump down wasn’t due to anything being released during the Asian session.

If you have not seen Sterlings latest video on how to trade the back side of manipulation points I recommend you watch it asap. Here is the link

Happy Trading


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