Non-Farm Payroll For September 4th 2015 – Daily Forex Commentary
Over the last 9 months or more we have seen NFP create a very reliable move on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD as long as a sizeable deviation from the expected number occurs. The last two months haven’t really been much to look at given the deviation was so close to what was expected. On the months where a 40K deviation +/- is created you almost always get a 30-40% retrace of the initial spike and then very consistent follow through in the direction of the spike. If your looking for an edge this one has been one of the most consistent in regards to economic data. Unlike most months, 20 minutes prior to the release this month you had a Fed member speaking as well.
Draghi Slaps Euro Down Further
With further intervention from the ECB likely and a poor outlook the EUR/USD took a nose dive. Since QE has worked so well in the US I don’t understand why they don’t just throw money at the economy lol. The fact is central banks are without a doubt the biggest criminals in the world. You cannot tell me that the worlds “greatest financial minds” come up with their best idea to solve a debt problem and that solution is…wait for it….more debt??? Are you serious? I really wish they were not serious but they are unfortunately and the long the charade continues the worse the eventual drop will be. Anyway, that’s another story.
The EUR/USD continued to get smashed today and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue. At this point I still feel like listing some solid lower manipulation points to go long from it worth while considering how fast and far the move has been on both of these pairs. That is exactly what I will be doing today.
GBP/USD Continues Down Slowly
I’ve been trading the GBP/USD the same way for a while now and I don’t intend to make any changes today. I’m still open on directional bias considering how far we have run to the downside. Its important to remember what type of trader you are. Considering the fact that our take profit is 40 pips the vast majority of the time overall direction rarely matters to me which is why I like to keep options open and will be doing the same today.
Overall this week has a been a great test of patience as we have seen far less trades. Staying patient and waiting for the correct setup is absolutely critical. Remember quality is the key to consistent and successful forex trading, not trade quantity. Retail traders consistently over trade out of boredom and end up never giving themselves a chance to be profitable.
Forex News For September 4th 2015
US Non-Farm Payroll 8:30 AM Eastern: Like I mentioned earlier NFP has produced a very repeatable pattern over the last 9-12 months when a deviation of 40K or more from the expected number is hit. After the initial spike we have been getting a 30-40% retrace followed by consistent follow through in the direction of the spike. An entry on the retrace in the direction of the spike has paid out nicely with the exception of 1 release. I would expect the same to continue until proven otherwise.
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