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November 1, 2013 Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD

The big boys chose option number two yesterday with the EUR/USD slamming it into oblivion while holding the GBP/USD up with the EUR/GBP. This tells me they must have got wind that Europe is really the dirtiest kid on the block, at least for now anyway. there was the crazy good news from the Chicago PMI data during the US session but the move had already pushed a long way before so I have my doubts that was much of a factor. With the problems in Greece reemerging while kept low key as far as the main stream press goes I have a feeling the dirt across the pond is turning into mud.

This morning we have Asia continuing the move already pushing it down further by 50 pips already so there is definitely some conviction in this move. the next daily level that has a good chance of turning for a pullback is around 1.3484. What does concern me a bit is that this is Friday and they could turn anywhere in this daily chop level between current price and the lows at 1.3484. Since there is nothing clear on pushes with this large run down I will be keeping an open mind on direction. However considering the conviction and the rather efficient move down what makes most sense is the continuation down to 1.3485 before they turn. It will take quite a bit of conviction to break that on a Friday. The best level for the short is a pullback to yesterdays lows at 1.3575 but if this move extends when London opens the pullback will most likely be shorter and they could turn it at 1.3560. The trapping will need to be clear to take it there but if this conviction holds it has a good chance.

EU 1hr chart

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As mentioned earlier the GBP/USD just stayed in the chop showing the move was more of Euro weakness than USD strength so we still may get the reversal here. The chop and fairly decent bottoming formation that was made during yesterday improves the odds for at least a pullback today with some Friday flows. Having said that it is the beginning of a new month and monthly flows trump weekly of course so keeping an open mind is the safes way to trade this pair today. After a day like yesterday its a good idea to keep an eye on the EUR/GBP and take notice of the daily support its coming into. As long as that holds the GU will join the EU in the tumble depending on how much conviction they have in Euro weakness. The best places to take entries will be the highs or lows yesterday but the 1.6042 level is valid for an aggressive short as long as we see the tell tail signs of them running the breakout traders to the Asia lows first. Or at least leaving the Asia box closer to the lows and playing them to the highs since the Asian range is of decent size.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The only scheduled new of any impact during the London session today is UK manufacturing PMI data of which I don’t expect much from since manufacturing in the UK is small. barring a big miss we probably wont see much.

Later the US has a Fed member Bullard speech and their ISM Manufacturing Index expected to fall a bit but still remain well above the 50 expansion level so my thoughts are it will take a large miss downward to create USD weakness. Otherwise a positive miss will do the opposite and potentially extend a move down on both EU and GU.

Max Loses His Rag Yet Again

Im sure you will enjoy this episode with Max Keiser as he talks about the oil industry and false notions of the US being the largest producer as of last month. Comical I tell you. One thing he don’t mention are the effects to the environment so I found the next video from three years ago showing what happens to wells when fracking is near by. Not to mention the chemicals left behind when their finished contaminating the water table. Enjoy.

Have a great weekend


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