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November 15th 2013 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

The EUR/USD had somewhat of the reversal that started during the Asian session finishing off the day with a pullback going into the third push chop. This tells me they are moving off the intraday pushes at the moment and now we will be looking for the break outside the chop to give us a clear direction. I am not as concerned about the end of week flows today since the three pushes to the upside were very efficient and had deep pullbacks on the way up so the probability that  there will be much profit taking creating those flows today is not that high.

My preferred trade today will be short from the 1.3486 to 1.3500 level. Its not so much that I think they will make a push down but the level is better and in closer proximity than the lows for a long. Having said that since we do have Janet Yellen more or less confirming she will keep up the print fest just about guaranteeing her approval by congress the fundamental probability is it breaks the highs. I just doubt they will do it today. On top of that there is the case that a strong Euro is not good for Europe and the ECB is likely to start its own blatant QE there is a good chance that it remains in this 250+range for some time. I will be open for the long but the best level is yesterdays lows. the Asian lows are valid but will need to be a darn good set up due to the aggressive nature of trading inside the range.

EU 1hr chart

The GBP/USD made the second push up as expected in yesterdays commentary. They did play the 200 ema traders pretty well before the run up. Although there was not a stop run there was quite a bit of confluence and nice set of legs on the second dip down. For those members who caught that good job. It was a little aggressive with out the stop run and the entry wasn’t that great but proved to be a nice trade for the more aggressive members.

Although yesterday I was looking at this as a second push there is the chance for the reversal on end of week flows with the large move and if I look hard I can find three pushes but I have to admit I don’t like the clarity. Having said that it does fulfill most of the rules for three intraday pushes and the daily level its coming into will take some conviction to break especially today when the 250 pip move should create some profit taking. On top of that we have the Euro moving on intraday pushes which increases the probability the GU will too. The bet level for the short will be the highs of 1.6100 with a nice stop run but I will be open to take it without one if the trapping is clear. The hourly close below 1.6053 does help a little but members know I don’t give them much credibility during the Asian session.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The economic calendar is almost non existent today with only CPI data from Europe. Most likely a non event.

Later in the day the US has the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index expected to have a nice jump but barring a large miss will also be a non event.

Helping the Filipinos

I wanted to update those that were asking about helping the Filipinos here. We have decided to take matters into our own hands and will be visiting the northern provinces this weekend to get an assessment of the damage and list of families in need from the local officials. Then will be buying bulk goods to be delivered. We have joined with a neighbor that is doing the same and getting donations from her friends in the US to get goods. Once we get an idea of what we can do I will give a paypal address that people can donate if they wish. All donations will be used for helping locals minus paypal and bank fees and I can provide all the receipts to show donors where their donation went. Thanks for the concern and help.

Those interested in donating please shoot me an email at for updates

Happy trading



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