November 19th 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis
The EUR/USD made a first push up yesterday leaving the chop from Thursday and Friday last week. It did have some nice hourly conviction above the daily levels at 1.3527 but was stopped short of the one just above at 1.3546 so this does have the potential to be a false push for a fake out. I have my doubts that’s the case since it seems as though the US will be trying to weaken the USD more throwing more bad money after bad money solidifying the US government is truly insane. Doing the same thing over and over expecting different results. Nuts I tell you.
I will have the bias for the next push up today but will be watching the 1.3546 level for a stop run. It will have to be rather convincing to short from there having the hourly stop run with trapping patterns. Preferably two to add probability to any short. The best level for the long is around 1.3500 and stop run below 1.3495 but since we have a widening Asian range already the Asian lows just may hold but again price action will need to be clear in order to take the long with out a stop run.
The GBP/USD did see a small reversal and as long as the Euro keeps up with its next push to the upside the probability is that this is all we see before it starts another set of pushes to the upside. At this point its safer to not have a bias on this pair. I will be open for the short with a stop run to 1.6142 but if the Euro is breaking to the upside and I miss it I will reconsider the short on the GU and look for a long from either the 1.6100-1.6190 range or potentially the Asian lows if the range widens sufficiently. It may dip as low as the 1.6080 level so I will be cautious and looking to see the typical playing of breakout traders if the Asian range stays tight.
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Forex News Today
The only significant release for the London session today is the German ad Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Expectations are for a rise on both so if they surprise to the upside the USD will weaken more while a miss to the downside will need to be larger to create thoughts of the ECB doing any printing. If that happens then the push will have more work to break to the upside on the EU.
The US session starts with Treasury Secretary babble followed my Fed Member Dudley dribble and topped off at the end of the day by Helicopter Ben throwing in his two cents. I will be keeping an eye on the Fed members more than the Treasury Secretary since most of what he says is trumped by the Fed all the time.
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