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November 26th 2013 Daily EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD today, at first glance I would think we have a failed second push but its not really the case. The move down was only around 70 pips which does not show that much conviction. It also reversed at a key level just above Thursdays highs last week. Although my bias to the upside is weaker I will still be looking for the long first today. I will be open for the short with a stop run to yesterdays highs but it will need to be a nice set up with enough signs of manipulation to change the small bias for the push up.

The best level for the long I see is yesterdays lows just below the hourly 200 ema but they could also stop it just above there at the psych level of 1.3500 considering the support that has already formed there. If they widen out the Asian range to the upside then the Asian session lows come into play around 1.3520 and the four hour 200.

1hr EU chart

The GBP/USD proved my concerns about the daily triple top being hard to break correct. It couldn’t even make the run to test the 1.6247 level mentioned in yesterdays commentary and ran straight south from there pretty much. I did take the long from 1.6185 during the London session and held through the NY open after tightening up the stop and took a 10 pip hit on the push down . It was a little aggressive with no stop run but I got a great entry allowing me to take the risk and didn’t take a full hit following my plan.

I will have the small bias for the short on this pair being cautious of this being a fake out before the break of the daily levels. If I see the lows hold with a stop run below during London today I will consider the long  while watching for the conviction below. Otherwise I will be more looking for the short around 1.6184 or just above at 1.6200.

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GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

The calendar is light again today with nothing substantial during the London session. The US has Housing Data early in the NY session but barring a big miss I doubt it will create a sustained move. The housing market in the US is being propped up by Hedge Funds and bulk buyers and most know that so I will take a long time before we see a real housing recovery. We do know they will use it to their advantage on a big miss though.

Later there is CB Consumer Confidence expected to rise and could create some “taper on” thoughts and strengthen the USD giving them a reason to hold this range but a miss to the downside will have the opposite effect so I will be keeping an eye on that if I am tradeing during the NY session.

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