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November 7th 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD did make the break and get a first push to the upside yesterday so today I will be cautiously bias for the long. The two best levels we have to take the long from are 1.3500 to 1.3487 range and 1.3466. With the 1.3500 level so close to current price the chance it will dip to 1.3487 for a stop run is good before it pushes off. There is also the chance for this to be a false push so I will be open for a short with a stop run to yesterdays highs or even into the hourly and four hour 200 emas. It will need to be very clear to change the bias there but I will be open for it.

EU 1hr chart

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The GBP/USD made its third push into the daily level I mentioned in yesterdays commentary. I did take the short I mentioned after it finished from 1.6105 during the London session and it came back to knock me out break even during the US session just before it pushed off down a bit. since it hasn’t quite made a decent reversal yet I will expect that today for a 40-50 pip trade and possibly the full push down. I have my doubts they will do much before the rate decision from the ECB today and NFP release tomorrow but we never really know.

We do have the conundrum of both pairs being in levels that are questionable on direction so keeping an open mind and watching for the clear set ups at the best levels will be the best way to treat these pairs. The best levels for the long here will be from the 1.6063 area as long as it holds and we see price leave the Asian range closer to its highs. otherwise I we do get the conviction below there during London the Asian highs become a good level for a short.

GU 1hr chart

Forex News Today

As mentioned above we have the Interest Rate decisions from both the BOE and ECB today. Unless the ECB surprises and lowers rates they will wait for the press conference and things will get interesting then. Things could get really wild since there is also US GDP figures and Thursday Unemployment data at the same time Super Mario starts the press conference. I will most likely just ignore the US session today.

Member Warning: We are being approached by a level 4 typhoon today so if I am not in the live room within 30 minutes of the scheduled time then the room will be canceled as I will not have internet.

Happy trading


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