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October 24, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Daily Analysis

The EUR/USD yesterday didn’t quite make the second push up and is still getting held down at Tuesdays highs. I am still expecting a break to the upside but since the didn’t have the conviction to break it up it is a bit diminished and will be just as open for the short from a clear stop run to the highs. The good thing is they managed to hammer out a good level at 1.3740 but if they are going to break the highs early on it probably wont make it there. If we do get some conviction to the upside during the London live training room today I will be looking at either the Asia lows for the long or possibly the highs if they push it beyond the high of 1.3791 far enough and give us a nice pullback with some manipulation.

1hr EU chart Oct 24th

The GBP/USD had somewhat similar price action but tested the lows Tuesday potentially showing the push up was false. It would be much clearer if it had some hourly closes below that low so today I will be treating this pair as no clear direction. Since we do have a good sized Asian range this morning I will consider the long from the Asian lows but any trade taken in the middle of a chop is risky at best so I will need to see clear signs they wont let rice pass there in order to take the long. Otherwise the best short will be from the highs. I really don’t like the 1.6225 level with all the hourly closes above it so unless there is something screaming short at that level I wont pay much attention to it.

GU 1hr chart Oct. 24th

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Forex News Today

The calendar has PMI figures from Germany, France and the Euro Zone during the London session but barring a bump below 50 on a majority of them I doubt there will be much reaction. By the looks of Bitcoin this morning investors seem to be more concerned about the weak USD and potential crisis the US has brought upon its self so it will take something big to remind them that Europe is just as guilty and could potentially be the catalyst that throws the markets in a tail spin.

The US has Unemployment data and New Home sales but with the Unemployment rate improvement being ignored any improvement will be dismissed while a disappointment will have a much bigger effect causing more USD weakness across the board. Its possible that New Home Sales could surprise upward but as I have said many times before in order to think there is true recovery in housing the figures will need to be much higher than we have seen lately.

Enjoy some more Max Keiser. We all need a good laugh and even though his points are backed up and he’s always a gloom and doomer. it is surely entertaining to see him lose his rag regularly.

Happy Trading


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