October 30, 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis
Looking at the price action on the EUR/USD yesterday we do have a first push down with one heck of a fake out after the US news came out. I will have a bias for the short today but having ADP Nonfarm and the FOMC today I will be cautious with my entry and closing before I go to bed if I don’t have the stop to break even and also widening out my take profit just in case they get wise and say anything about not filling the punchbowl with more asset purchases.
The best level I see for the short is 1.3751 but the problem with it is proximity to price so there is a good chance they push it up to 1.3770 unless we see them hold price below 1.3741 or even better yesterdays lows and the hourly 200 EMA. As long as London holds price down the probability goes up for the short. Of course there is the chance they just hold price at this level until they get the news so if I do get an entry and it don’t move off within a few hours I will just close it and wait it out. Otherwise the chance of this being a false push is there and in order to consider the long I will want to see them hold here then play the breakout traders at the Asian high followed by the stop run at the lows in order to change my bias.
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The GBP/USD did almost exactly as I expected in yesterdays commentary. The problem was it did it at a risky time of day for entries and missed my level by more pips than I was comfortable with. It did give a second chance during the New York session but I was out having dinner with the family at the time. Good job to the members who caught that short for 50-60 pips.
I will have the bias for the short again today looking to see the third long term push. However as I was mentioning in the live training room yesterday we need to be aware of the intraday pushes of which I see four of right now. I think if they intended to turn it here they would have stopped and made a clearer bottoming formation but its possible. The best level for the short is again a range today between 1.6051 and 1.6063 and if it breaks above there then the psych 1.6100 is next but if it does reach that high it will be close to news time and the New York open most likely so I will wait for ADP to be released before considering an entry. The only possibility for a long is yesterdays lows around the four hour 200 ema but I will need some strong price action convincing me to change the bias.
Forex News Today
The scheduled releases for the London session are only Spanish GDP figures and German Unemployment data. both of these could easily be used for manipulation but I doubt that even if they miss significantly the big boys will let price run before the FOMC data later in the US session. As long as the German figures are not a blow out then the chance of the ECB doing anything with interest rates goes down significantly since Germany is the boss. Otherwise I doubt there will be much conviction if the Spanish GDP misses.
The US has their ADP Nonfarm and I don’t expect much barring a big miss like we saw with last months NFP. if it does we may see the same reaction expecting a bad NFP print next week too. Otherwise they will be focused on what the Fed does or doesn’t do later in the day. Im glad I will be sleeping then. 🙂
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