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Oil Below $60, CME Installs PM Surge/Crash Breakers Dec. 12, 2014

Something Is Up When Oil Drops This Hard While The CME Installs Surge/Crash Breakers On Precious Metals

As I look around today and try to find word for just how the big boys have messed things up the term FUBAR just doesnt seem to do the predicament justice. For those who aren’t familiar with the term its a simple acronym for F@#*ed Up Beyond All Recognition. There is only one reason to install an auto stop switch to the precious metals markets. They expect some wild swings in the near future and they need to have a way to stop it. I have to say that one couldn’t put it much better than this excerpt from a Phoenix Capital article I read this morning.

The biggest problem with the financial markets today is the fraud.

Fraud is endemic in the financial system today. We know that the currency, stock, bond, and even commodity markets have ALL been manipulated by Investment Banks or Central Banks.

Then there is balance sheet fraud. After the 2008 Crash, the regulators suspended accounting standards that required the banks to price their assets at market-based values. The reason the regulators did this was because the market priced these assets at pennies on the Dollar, if not ZERO.

This meant that most banks were insolvent and bankrupt.

Today, most banks are valuing assets on their balance sheets using mark to model accounting standards.  Since the “models” used to price these assets are developed by the banks themselves with NO oversight,“mark to Model” is effectively a phrase term for “make believe.”

Beyond simple price manipulation and balance sheet fraud, we also know that earnings, or the money that companies allegedly make after costs, are fraudulent.

Indeed, a study performed by Duke University found that roughly 20% of publicly traded firms manipulate their earnings to make them appear better than they really are. The folks who were surveyed for this study about this practice were the actual CFOs at the firms themselves.

So… the prices of assets are fraudulent, the value of balance sheets is fraudulent, and earnings are fraudulent. This means that stock market caps, balance sheets, and income statements are all inaccurate representations of reality.

Sitting atop this mountain of fraud is the Federal Reserve…. the US Central Bank that owes its very existence to fraud (if Americans understood how the Fed was created and who controls it, it would have ceased to exist decades ago).

The fact is there is literally not an honest country or international business out there that don’t fit in the fraud pile. For those out there that think China, or Russia for that matter is going to be any better off than the west or that they aren’t doing the exact same thing should read the article linked below from an interview with Anne Stevenson-Yang, a no-nonsense woman who has lived, worked and analyzed China from within since 1985. Bejing- We Have  Problem. Of course this is all stuff we suspected but having someone like her confirm it is a first.

In short This lady is about as blunt as you can get about Chinese fraud, lies, mal-investment, and data manipulation. The entire Chinese economic miracle is a fraud. The reforms are false. The leaders are corrupt and as evil as ever. The entire edifice is built upon a Himalayan mountain of bad debt.

EUR/USD Rejects First Push

As usual the conviction during Asia on the EUR/USD was false and now we have an intraday push down. The manipulation at the highs during London was beautiful but they didnt provide me an entry before the drop. Today I will be more open on direction looking to trade from the high/low of yesterdays range. With current price closer to the lows the probability for the long seems better but would be nice to see them test during Asia this morning and hold. The mid range levels are valid for shorts but also carry more risk so in order to take entries at 1.2413 or 1.2447 I will need to see them play the breakout traders before a clear set up.

EUR/USD hourly chart 12-12-2014

GBP/USD Gets Help From EUR/GBP To Close Higher

The GBP/USD had a slightly better day yesterday after also rejecting any Asian session conviction. Seemingly they think the GBP is stronger for what reason we may never know. I suspect there isn’t one other than the high probability of Greece leaving the Euro if the party leading in the polls takes control of the Greek government.

There isnt any reason I see to have a bias on direction with this pair today and will be keeping an open mind. Again the best and safer levels to trade form will be the high/low of yesterdays price action but if I do consider a trade inside the chop it will be at 1.5694. It would be best to see it tested during Asia as well but I wont require it since it has a lot of confluence and we have the late day conviction adding to the probability they will test yesterdays highs today.

GBP/USD Hourly Chart 12-12-2014

EUR/JPY Reverses For First Intraday Push

The EUR/JPY managed to make a full intraday push upward after reversing yesterday. Today I will have a small bias for the next push up but would prefer to see a long term push with conviction. The best level to catch the long this morning is at 147.25 so hopefully they will test it later before running off. Neither of the other Yen crosses I watch have hit a level either so it has a good chance for returning. Otherwise they could run lower to 146.95 during London. The only place I will consider a short is up at 148.03 but will be cautious due to the 148.24 just behind.

EUR/JPY Hourly chart 12-12-2014

Forex News Today

The calendar is slow today with only medium impact events for Europe in the form of Spanish and Italian CPI along with Euro Zone Industrial Production later. With Supre Marios hands tied I wouldnt expect much form the inflation data unless they miss big to the downside. They are already expected to be below zero so thats probably priced in but a substantial disappointment should be Euro negative. Ind Production is expected to drop to .10% as well so a miss below zero is what I see having the most impact.

The US has PPI data expected to drop below zero on the higher impact event. Since this is priced in I see larger potential for a miss to the upside with the bar set that low. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment is likely a non event since most of the big boys got the data a couple days ago.

Have a great weekend




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