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Picture Dont Look Good For Greece April 27, 2015

Europe Preparing For Greek Default

This is not the first time we have heard such ideas that Europe has been preparing for the infamous Grexit but its coming down to the wire and looking more like the scenario I talked about in the commentary several times before. Greece will likely have a referendum and/or snap elections while there is the third option I didnt see as really on the table before. Plain old default. To be honest I thought they would be smart enough to do something else before the Europe cut them off but it seems they are thinking that a deal can be made when in reality Germany has just admitted that the current program for Greece was never really any thing close to a solution when we see headlines like the one below.

Germany Prepares For “Plan B”, Says Greece Would “Need Not Only A Third Bailout, But Fourth, Fifth Or Even More”

Although I have to assume that what has been done for the debt issue in Europe has been done with what powers that be would call good intentions, they were done to try and buy time while the same people maintained their power and jobs of course. The quote below sums it up pretty good as to why Europe and the world in general cant recover.

Let’s face the facts. The very same problems that lead to 2008 remain in place today. The people who created this mess have gone unpunished. No one went to jail. No rule of law was upheld. Instead trillions of US taxpayer dollars were funneled to a bunch of crooks and liars. And the Fed and friends actually thought growth might come out of this?

 EUR/USD Climbs Higher On Greek Hopium

Although I have to admit I expected a gap down on the Greek news over the weekend but with all the talk of how the ECB QE will minimize and Greek default it dont surprise me that it didnt. Having said that I would be more inclined to agree with those saying that a default would be going into “uncharted territory” rather than any thing that could be managed by the ECB, especially since Super Mario has been short on available bonds to buy.

I will have a bias for the long today and treating this as a first push. The best level considering proximity is at 1.0842 but the stronger level is down at 1.0811 where the NY/London overlap low sits. Otherwise I will be open for a short from 1.0896 and prefer to see a stop run avove Fridays highs.

EURUSD Up On Greek Hopium 4-27-2015

GBP/USD Shows Daily Conviction Above March Spike

The daily conviction on the GBP/USD does imply they will be testing higher but I have to say the level at 1.5160 is weaker than if they drop to 1.5113. The pushes arent all that clear so I will be bias for the long but still open to short from Fridays highs but will need enough price action telling me they cant find buyers above the highs.

GBPUSD Daily Close Above March Spike High 4-27-2015

EUR/JPY Goes Into Chop Mode

The push to the upside followed by conviction below the Asia lows Friday on the EUR/JPY leaves me with no bias on direction today. The safer levels for entry will be at the extremes while the daily high Thursday is valid at 129.65. It is weaker considering the beating it took but the confluence of the four hour 200 lowers the risk a little.

EURJPY Topping After Sloppy Third Push 4-27-2015


Forex News Today

The calendar is rather dead today so baring any Greek or other tape bombs movement should be more price related rather than news expectations. Having said that there is no shortage of potential something will be said about the Greek meeting over the weekend but it wouldnt surprise me one bit if they try to keep a lid on that for as long as possible.

Happy Trading



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