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Pound And Euro Primed To Fall? January 11th 2016

Third Push Up Complete In EUR/USD

The EUR/USD completed the third and final push that we were looking for on Friday. During the European session the market was pretty much dead as most were waiting on the looming NFP data. When NFP came out much better than expected the Euro created a very large stop run through out second lower level in the Friday forex analysis. Two candles later we got a valid confirmation candle but not enough pullback after the confirmation to initiate the trade. Becoming a consistently profitable forex trader, in my opinion, relies on a high reward to risk ratio. As it relates to the NFP trade, if I do not get the pullback required then the potential profit does not outweigh the risk I have to take to get it. 

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Since we completed the third push to the upside on Friday, we now go back to an open directional bias. From a wider perspective the Euro has run into significant resistance on the lower term charts and the Pound cycle does support a move down. With that being said, at this point that is only opinion and must be confirmed by an actual stop run of a high probability manipulation point. For a potential short I have two upper manipulation points I would take a short setup from with a valid stop run. On the opposite side, we have very limited lower manipulation points. In fact, I only have one lower manipulation point from which I would consider a stop run long. Although I would be more conservative with lower levels considering my slight bias short, the fact is we just don’t have any lower manipulation points to choose from even if I wanted to.

EUR/USD Chart - January 11th 2016

Pound Continues To Get Hammered

The Pound continues to get beat like a red headed step child. Thursday gave us a first push to the upside and therefore we were looking for the second push to the upside from Friday. As you can see we had a complete retracement of the previous push up and thus we now have what we term as a failed first push up and a valid first push to the downside. For today I will look for the second push to the downside. Friday was a great example of the trading strategy that is taught in the forex course, doing its job when a cycle breaks down. When a cycle breaks down we want to see the market simply go through our listed levels without providing a valid confirmation entry. This is exactly what happened and the GBP/USD was a no trade.

One trouble with the Pound right now is the lack of upper manipulation points from which to even consider a stop run short. At this point we only have one upper manipulation point from which to consider the second push to the downside.

GBP/USD Chart - January 11th 2016

Forex News For January 11th 2016

There is no scheduled data I would be concerned with today.



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