Pound Keeps ‘Future Rate Hike’ Gains – July 17th 2015
I don’t have anything exciting to rant about to close the week. The only thing I wanted to share with everyone today was an article entitled How Likely Is Hyperinflation In The US? While I know most people reading this probably fall under the “it can never happen to me, please let me go bury my head in the sand” group, this is a really good read that had a great deal of charts and facts to back up the point. Overall I think it is unlikely due to the massive world wide float of about 250 trillion. That being said it is still a good read.
EUR/USD Continues Its Downward Slide
The Euro produced two nice trades for us today. Both trades were what we term as backside of the level trade setups, and they were both off of the 1.0914 level in last nights daily market review. For today, the Euro is approaching a major daily support level in the 1.0823 area that will interesting. If the intention is to move the price up that would be a price level to create a stop run reversal from. While most of the potential trade levels today are upper levels from which I would look to go short if our criteria is validated, I will still take a long from the daily low should it provide a valid stop run reversal.
Pound Remains Range Bound
After the huge run up on the hope of an interest rate hike, the Pound continues to hold strong. I find it hard to believe that the market is convinced of a nearing rate hike. At this point I still consider the 1.5665 level the figurative line in the sand. If we break and hold above it then that gives us a clue the market believes the hype and more upside becomes a very likely outcome. If however we were to create a stop run from that level for a trade down I would be just as happy. Like yesterday I don’t have a directional bias and I will simply be trading from any of the pre-determined manipulation points should a trade setup once the price gets there.
The Pound, like the Euro, also provided a nice stop run setup. The push into our lower manipulation point was where the trade setup from. For any members make sure to watch the video review tonight as I walk through all 3 setups on both pairs.
Forex News For July 17th 2015
CAD Core CPI M/M 8:30 AM Eastern – This is a big mover for the CAD. A deviation of .1 +/- will still create a good move but it has a high probability of being a short term fake out. This works out nicely when the market is over extended on the day and the news creates an even further push. They then quickly snap the price back and you get a large surge back the opposite direction as traders who chased the news get stopped out. A .2 deviation +/- from the expected number is however nothing to trade against as it has the ability to carry price further than you might think. Expected at -.1%
US CPI M/M 8:30 AM Eastern – Unlike CAD CPI, US CPI is not quite the same in its ability to move the market. Once big reason is it just doesn’t deviate like other countries CPI. If we were to see a .2 deviation +/- from the expected number you would definitely get a move that is capable of spiking the market more than 15 pips and therefore I will not be carrying a trade going into this release. Core CPI is expected at .2% and CPI M/M is expected at .3%
US UoM Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM Eastern – This is a good market mover with the right size deviation. With this news you will need to see a deviation of at least 8 +/- from the expected number to get a 15+ pip spike. Expected at 96.4
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