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Retail Sales Disappoints And USD Takes Hit April 15, 2015

USD Tumbles On Retail Sales Disappointment, Or was it a Fed Speech

Yesterdays Retail Sales data from the US really wasnt all that disappointing. It did rise above zero and only missed by a tenth of a percent, of which is easily within the margin of error. Core data did miss by 2 tenths of a percent but a pull from negative territory is still much better than the last figures. However there is more likely another culprit out there in the form of Fed member Kocherlakota, typical dove, saying that the Fed raising rates this year would be inappropriate. Well duh, the Fed raising rates in the next ten years is going to not only be inappropriate but almost impossible.

Im going to stick my neck out here but the way I see it is the probability of the Fed going into negative rates, like alot of others already, is much higher than any chance of actually raising rates. There is also the chance that the current central banks that are already negative, almost forcing their countries banks to actually pay interest to borrowers, blowing up in their face before the Fed actually has to go negative which is something to ponder. Below is a portion from a Reggie Middleton article this morning.

At least one Spanish bank, Bankinter SA, the country’s seventh-largest lender by market value, has been paying some customers interest on mortgages by deducting that amount from the principal the borrower owes.

The problem is just one of many challenges caused by interest rates falling below zero, known as a negative interest rate. All over Europe, banks are being compelled to rebuild computer programs, update legal documents and redo spreadsheets to account for negative rates.

“I’m going to frame my bank statement, which shows that Bankinter is paying me interest on my mortgage,” said a customer who lives in Madrid. “That’s financial history.”

Just one question. How on earth could this last?

EUR/USD Pops First Push Up

The push up on the EUR/USD does give me a bias for the long today but the potential levels are weak being only breakout levels so far. The Asian range has already widened enough to consider its lows but I will want to see a breakout level hold first either at 1.0618 or below at 1.0593. Otherwise I am open for the short ate yesterdays highs at 1.0700 but if they do run that 70 pips from here I prefer to be long waiting to take profits.

EURUSD Runs First Push Up 4-15-2015

GBP/USD Runs Extended Second Push

The second push on the GBP/USD will keep me bias for the long today. However I should point out that it blew past the ADR by 40 pips when they have been recently tightening up the daily ranges. This does leave a bit more open for a potential failure or at least holding back on a full third push today. Having said that the levels are questionable with the best ones being far away aside from the Asian lows. In order to take a safer trade from I prefer to see them leave the Asian box closer to the highs before a set up to its lows. If there is the conviction below the Asian box then a test down to 1.4723 or 1.4687 is likely before a push upward.

GBPUSD Extended Second Push 4-15-2015

EUR/JPY Runs First Push With EU

I am considering this more of an intraday push due to the lack of conviction yesterday but none the less will have a bias for the long. The current Asian lows are a weaker level so they may test lower to the daily 126.50 in which I hope to have a reason to be short from 127.63 looking to take profits below.

EURJPY First Intraday Push 4-15-2015

Forex News Today

The main event today will be the ECB Rate Decision and more so the Press Conference. At this point its a toss up as to what Super Mario will say. If history gives us a clue there will be the pump and dump of how good the Euro Zone looks on paper when you wear your Super duper spy 3D Elmer Fudd glasses but then the risks will be tallied and the dump will ensue. Otherwise moves are likely to be slow other than a potential pull back of yesterdays move as the big boys exit extra risk.

Happy Trading



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