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Sept. 19. 2013 EUR/USD, GBP/USD Analysis

And so the print fest continues. We are all in as they would say in poker.

When I got the charts going this morning it was clearly obvious that Ben really thinks he is doing the right thing with going the way of the Romans and all the other great empires that eventually fell due to diluting their money. There is one small but meaningful difference this time around in that the rest of the world is essentially following suit and doing the same thing so my thoughts are this will go on until it just cant anymore which could easily be years or even decades into the future before the big reset has to happen. My best guess is that the members of the Fed saw the rise in long term rates on US treasuries and felt they had no choice but to keep the parade going or it will only be a matter of time before the US cant afford to pay its debt. I suppose we can only hope they can and will get their act together in the government with time to spare so the US don’t share the same fate as the Romans. Time will tell.

Looking at the charts I have to go back on the daily to find good levels for potential trades today. We have one heck of a break out first push and I expect a pullback but where will they feel comfortable that they have pushed out enough weak holders to continue the next push up is the question I am asking myself. We already have a 33 pip Asian range on the EUR/USD this morning which is nice but with no retrace of the inefficient move on the news it does have the small chance of making the attempt at it today. Having said that I do have my doubts.

The best levels I see to potentially go long from are at 1.3491 or a bit lower at 1.3451. Considering we already have a decent Asian range built I will also be looking at the Asian lows for an entry today preferably seeing price leave the range near the middle before they play the breakout traders to the lows with a clear trap.

EU 1hr chart 9-19-2013

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The GBP/USD is in the same situation with the exception of the several hourly closes above the 1.5960 level yesterday so anybody with the nerve to take the entry and hold through the news would have done well but even aggressive Chad don’t do that 🙂

With it testing and holding at a daily level yesterday the chance for the pullback here is higher but will need some help from the EUR/GBP if the EU makes the break. I think its still a low chance but its there. The best level I see for the long is the 1.6100 area but it could easily dip down to 1.5980 before it goes off. The only way I will consider a short trading against this first push is with a stop run to the highs. If they do want to push out weak holders they will most likely run it as low as 1.6037.

GU 1hr chart 9-19-2013

Forex News Today

The only significant news release on the calendar during the London session today is the UK Retail Sales figures expected to drop on the monthly and rise on the year over year number. This will be a good chance for them to weaken the GBP and flush out traders if it disappoints.

Later in the US session there is Thursday Unemployment Claims expected to jump to 330K and this will just need to be as expected for the USD weakness to continue and most likely take a big miss positive to slow it or create an opportunity for them to try and close the inefficient moves. Later is Existing Home Sales expected to drop also so the same applies there. There is also the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index expected to improve if you can believe it. It is a medium impact event but if it does miss big we will see them make the best of it.

Happy Trading


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