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Still Waiting On EUR/USD Third Push Down – FX Forecast 4/15/2016

EUR/USD Goes Into Range Before Potential Third Push

One of the things that I pointed out in yesterday’s daily market preview was the possibility for the EUR/USD stalling for a day. Many times when the first push and the second push are much larger than the current ADR, you will get a third day that stalls out before giving a final third push. For today we will continue to look for that third push to the downside and any lack of movement down will mean we start Monday with an open directional bias. As far as our listed levels today, I really like what we have as compared to yesterday. We have one additional upper manipulation point in addition to the upper level from yesterday. Additionally we also have a very clear lower level from which a backside short would be valid should we simply break to the downside without making an attempt at the highs.

EUR/USD Chart - April 15th 2016

Pound Looking More Bullish After Testing Lows

Like the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD also has really quality manipulation points. For those who are non members, the most important part of the DTFL day trading strategy is having quality manipulation points. Today we really have quality levels from which to trade. To start the day we have 2 upper and 2 lower manipulation points. Additionally we have some backside options as well. A backside long off the first upper level and a backside short off the first lower level is also available to us should we break through those points. This gives us 4 trade options just off of those two listed points. Like always, patience is the key and we need to wait for a valid confirmation entry to occur from one of these points.

GBP/USD Chart - April 15th 2016

Forex Market News For April 15th 2016

US Empire Manufacturing 8:30 AM Eastern: About 3 months back we had a very sizable deviation and it produced a 15+ pips spike and a +60 pip run in the first 30 minutes before the market eventually reversed. More often than not this news is not a sizable market mover and if your holding into this trade with a position that is 10-15 pips in the green, I don’t think you have a great deal of risk. For this month 1.5 is the expected number.

US UoM Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM Eastern: For this month 92 is the expected release. This generally doesn’t hit +15 pips on the first initial 10 second candle but it does it within the first few 10 second candles without a break and this is still what we consider the spike. As such, I would not carry into this release.


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