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Super Mario Attacked At ECB Press Conference April 16, 2015

Mario Draghi Attacked? Looks To Me Like The Protester Was Attacked

One just cant make this stuff up. Yesterday was an eventful day for Super Mario during the press conference as a protester jumped on his desk and started shouting “End the ECB Dictatorship” Now as many are saying he was NOT attacked. She did throw some confetti in the air around him but in the video below you will see that she was the one attacked by security and probably rightfully so but to say Mario Draghi was attacked is not true.

And it only gets better as I have another video treat that explains exactly why the Fed will not be raising rates any time soon. If they do surprise me in that respect then they will be  more likely cutting them even lower than that are and potentially go negative. However the more probable scenario is what Jim Rickards says in the Boom Bust video below. The interview starts about half way through but the NSA spying part in the beginning is interesting as well.

Last but not least there were two fed members spewing dribble yesterday that sums up the stupidity we have running the money in the US. The first from Lacker. (comments not mine) Keep in mind what Jim Rickards said in the video, “The IMF has the second worst record on forecasting US growth, second only to the Fed”

*LACKER: INDICATORS POINT TO NEED TO RAISE RATES THIS YEAR(US macro data is the worst since Lehman?)

*LACKER: I’M UNDETERRED BY RECENT WEAKNESS IN DATA, “CAN’T GO ON FOREVER” (Hope is a strategy?)

*LACKER: DON’T EXPECT UNUSUAL MARKET VOLATILITY AROUND RATE RISE (because the Taper Tantrum went well?)

Now for Bullards take.

FED SHOULD NOT SURPRISE MARKETS ON TIGHTENING PACE 

… minutes after he said:

NOW `MAY BE A GOOD TIME’ TO BEGIN RAISING RATES

And then added:

HE’S `DELIBERATELY VAGUE’ ABOUT LIFTOFF TIMING

BULLARD: CUT RATES IF ECONOMY SUFFERS SHOCK AFTER FED LIFTOFF

I have to say that sounds eerily like something I mentioned previously. If the Fed does raise rates its only because they want to have room to cut them at least once before starting more QE just so they dont look like the complete idiots they are, if only for a few minutes.

EUR/USD Blasts Past 1.0700

Even though the EUR/USD didnt quite make the second push yesterday they are getting an early start this morning. I am always suspicious of conviction during the Asian session but this sort of move cant be ignored. Today I will be bias for the long but will want to see them hold above 1.0700 during London to confirm. The best level is the 1.0700 since a test of the Asian lows is unlikely. Otherwise I will be open for the short at 1.0742 but will need enough price action to change the bias.

EURUSD Thrust Through 1.0700 4-16-2015

GBP/USD Runs Third Push Showing No Topping For Reversal

The GBP/USD running the third push without showing any topping does hint that they may run extended pushes on this pair but as with the EU I will need to see that they are going to hold the Asian conviction during London. It sure looks like they arent so convinced the Fed will be raising rates. Considering stocks had a decent day yesterday puts equities in agreement as well. I wont have a clear bias today watching what happens during London looking for a long at 1.4851 if the conviction holds or a potential short from the there if they clearly show the conviction was a fake out.

GBPUSD Third Push No Topping 4-16-2015

EUR/JPY Holding Inside Weekly Range

With the EUR/JPY still holding inside this weeks range I will be open on direction looking for a potential short at the 127.70 level or just above at the Asian highs. The Asian lows at 127.12 are valid for the long but carry higher risk while the safer entry long would be to wait for a test of 126.23.

EURJPY Holding Weeks Range 4-16-2015

Forex News Today

The calendar is quiet until the NY session baring any European tape bombs today. The US has a full bag with housing data and Thursday Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed later in the day. I dont expect much from Building Permits or Housing Starts unless they miss big and if the recent data has shown us any clues the chance of a disappointment is higher. Otherwise the Claims data should only make waves on a pop above 300K or a miss well below the 280K expected. Philly Fed Manufacturing is expecting a full point rise and has consistently been disappointing so has a better chance of doing that again considering US data recently.

Later in the day there are four Fed member speeches so those will be interesting considering the rhetoric of late. Probably more rate hike threats all being data dependent while data is crap.

Happy Trading

Chad

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2 Comments

  1. pc
    pc April 16, 08:49

    I once heard on an interview, that the Fed are just like a bunch of bumbling inspector Clouseau’s, all saying different things to keep everyone guessing. The real power that pulls the strings is the Treasury, the Fed is just a sideshow. That seems to make the most sense to me.

    Reply to this comment
    • Chad Tell
      Chad Tell Author April 17, 02:50

      To a degree thats correct. Its the treasury that funds the government however they are all (Fed, Treasury, House, Senate) more like the Three Stooges to the multinational corporations all the way to the top in the Oval Office. There are exceptions to this rule but they are far and few between and usually dont last long in government because the money will always flow to the Stooges. 😉

      Reply to this comment

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