The Inevitable Greek Default Is Here – July 1st 2015
Before we get into the commentary for today I want to walk through the most recent changes. For the last two years, the daily commentary has been part of Chad’s daily role at DTFL. As of today and for the foreseeable future I (Sterling) will be taking over the daily market commentary. As I get more into the commentary you will probably notice I do things a bit different. I’m not 100% sure of the exact format that I will use. I will no doubt develop that over the next few weeks as I get my feet wet doing a written commentary as apposed to my video daily market review I do each night for members.
Greece Defaults As Gold And Silver Continue To Fall
As I’m sure most are already aware, “Greece has failed to make payment due Tuesday”. I’ve been preaching for years that you can’t go into more debt to get out of debt. While I could explain this concept to most 12 year olds, this simple truth seems to slip through the grasp of those running the financial system. I tend to believe it is more of a designed collapse rather than negligence but that’s another story. Either way the default has happened and I don’t think they will be the last.
On a side note it is interesting to see how both silver and gold look completely unaffected by this news. Had it come out of nowhere it would more than likely have sent both commodities through the roof. The long and drawn out inevitable result has however left the precious metals unaffected. Why am I focusing on silver and gold. Simply put both silver and gold tend to be a very good measure of overall risk aversion or risk appetite. If that is true then the market is acting as if this is a non event. What will be the long term consequences of today’s news? Your guess is as good as mine. One thing I know is the financial elite are quite good at kicking the can down the road and I highly doubt they will allow wide spread collapse with more government intervention. Can you say hello to financial haircuts lol? The mattress is looking like a better and better location to store cash!
EUR/USD Fails To Move On Greek Default
Overall right now I still favor a Euro short as I did yesterday. If however the upper line on the Euro were to break then all bets are off and we are likely to squeeze to the upside for a few more days. Anytime you have a huge push back and forth in any pair the key is level selection. The more uncertain you are the stronger the level needs to be for me to even consider trading from it. Keep that in mi
Continued Range In The GBP/USD
The Pound continues to remain in a rough 100 pip range. The lower floor to the downside is quite substantial. Should that level actually break and hold then your direction is likely set for the rest of the week. One thing that does however give me some concern about a continued push down in the Pound is the position we are seeing with smart money during the previous week. Over the COT data is definatley showing a major reduction in the overall short position on the Pound from a long term perspective. That doesn’t mean that the Pound can’t make a push down through this week. It does however mean that the push down is more likely to be a retracement for the next push up. Time will tell on that one.
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