US GDP Disappoints Causing Spikes In EU And GU March 30, 2015
EUR/USD And GBP/USD Reject Lows And Spike Higher On Bad US GDP Data.
As I somewhat expected last Friday the US GDP data was disappointing to say the least. I have to admit that the non growth it shows was negative but it didnt drop below the last print still holding on to some hope for now anyway. The next release should be interesting to see as we all hope the Fed is wrong on downgrading growth figures in a positive way. However I wont be holding my breath.
At the risk of flooding you all with Max Keiser episodes I did find this Saturdays episode very interesting as well. Although the beginning is good with Stacy talking about how big pharma makes a killing on cancer drugs only extending the lives of patients in a minimal way which is not surprising haveing been the business model of the medical industry in the US all along. The second half with Max interviewing Swiss banker, Egon von Greyerz is a must see as will the second half of the interview will be Im sure. Of which will likely be posted in Wednesdays commentary.
EUR/USD Rejects Second Push
With the EUR/USD rejecting the next push down and closing rather flat on the day last Friday it lessens the potential for the next push so my bias for the short will be a little weaker today. The best level to short from is way up at 1.0922 so the Asian highs will be valid considering we already have a 40 pip Asian range. The only place I will be open for a long is down at the lows at 1.0808 even though the 200 EMA is valid since I still have the bias for the short today.
GBP/USD Stubbornly Holding Range
I have to say the hourly conviction on the GBP/USD over the last couple days is encouraging but seeing it run back into the range afterward is a little troubling but not really all that surprising after Carney did use the rate hike intervention last week. I wont have a bias for direction today but if we can get any conviction to hold below the Asia lows during London I will be bias for the short to test the lows Friday. If there is no entry and it does run to 1.4805 then I will be open for the long for the pullback.
EUR/JPY EUR/USD Correlation Holding Firm
With the correlation holding firm between the EUR/JPY and EUR/USD and likely to continue considering the BOJ being out of options. This pair did show the third push before a reversal Friday so being open on direction is best. We will know more if this intraday push turns out to be false and they make a push down. The safer trades will be from the extremes but I wont be looking for a long at the lows unless the EU agrees. As with the GU I will be open for a short after seeing conviction below the Asia lows during London most likely only holding for a test of the lows unless it shoots through without much support coming in.
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow during London with only Spanish and German CPI data that I dont see having a big impact baring a big miss. Expectations are close to flat for Spain while Germanys is expected to rise slightly. The UK only has low impact data as well so would need a large miss to get them thinking the BOE will or wont raise rates like they have been talking about.
The US has Pending Home sales expected to drop and considering the dismal housing and Durable goods data, this should be close. There is also a Fed member speech and Fischer is typically doveish so I dont expect much in rate hike threats.
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