USDX Barley Holds Above March Lows May 1, 2015
USD Beat Down Again But Manages To Close Above March Lows
The USD rout continued yesterday while the Euro enjoyed most of the gains. The GBP/USD managed to make the reversal as German Bunds took a hit as well seeing the EUR/GBP blow of well over twice its average daily range. For now it seems as though they arent quite willing to weaken the USD further but if this hit to German Bunds continues we will most likely be seeing the EU and GU run opposite directions as the EG runs wild.
Now for a little education on bank collusion. We often get asked if the big boys are making secret phone calls colluding on where they will push the market each day. Our understanding has always been that its a very rare occasion because they all operate in the same fashion and need to do so in order to fill client orders along with theirs without spiking the market and giving away direction. On top of that its illegal and some patsies are going down (well at least a wrist slap fine anyway) for manipulating price around the daily fixes. Having said that they dont need to have these secret phone calls anymore because they have their bots to do it for them. I cant say it surprises me but in the Keiser Report below they show just how the bots do it and have more or less found a way to deal with the “prisoners dilema” that naturally takes the collusion participants down because they have eliminated the human factor. Interesting stuff.
EUR/USD Pushes Continue But Slowing
While the EUR/USD did make another push testing the February highs and break daily breakout it also showed some signs of slowing with the rejection and deeper pullback. However it also showed that the potential topping was false so they may push it up again today even if the probability has lessened somewhat. I will be more open on direction today but still slightly bias for the long. The best level is down at 1.1137 but the daily high at 1.1187 may hold. Otherwise I will be open for a short from 1.1263 preferably seeing a stop run above.
GBP/USD Makes First Push Reversal
The GBP/USD has made the reversal for a first push down so I will be bias for the short her. I am never happy to bias in opposite directions regarding the EU and GU essentially relying on the EG to go nuts so I will be more open for the long if the USD weakness is to continue. The best level to short is up at 1.5380 but they could easily test higher to the breakout level at the psych 1.5400. Otherwise I will be open for the long around 1.5307.
EUR/JPY Runs Two Pushes For 300+ Pips
With the EUR/JPY running extended pushes still I will remain bias for the long but coming into the March highs will also keep me more open for the short. At this point the best level for the long is down at 133.73 but if that breaks with conviction I either hope to be short from a clear set up and stop run from the highs or will consider a backside entry for the run to test around 132.75
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow today with only UK Manufacturing PMI during the London session expecting a slight improvement. We will have to watch and see if it sets up in the hour or two before the release like it typically does.
The US also has ISM Manufacturing PMI expecting a rise to 52. As long as its close there is a better chance that they hold off on more USD weakness but a drop below 50 will more likely get them selling it hard. Michigan Consumer Sentiment could get them running on a miss but is more likely priced in being released to banks that pay two to three days ago.
Have a great weekend
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