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What Is The Best Scam That Happens Every 4 Years? August 10th 2015 Forex Commentary

With the political season heating up in the US the scam once again starts. For anyone who is a member of DTFL you know I don’t vote, never have and never will. I really don’t understand why anyone would vote for a scam. Most American’s would say the US has a two party system…most American’s also don’t understand the US is a constitutional republic, not a democracy. With that being said what is the difference between the two parties? Really?!? If Romney would have won you would have gotten government health care as well. If Romney would have won you would have gotten more war, more infringements on your rights in the name of “security”, ect.

The perfect scam is the scam that happens right in front of your face. When you believe you have a choice you will never look behind the curtain. The fact is their may be two puppets to choose from but its the same person controlling both puppets.  Its a beautiful scam because everything bad that happens can be blamed on the president like they actually dictate what happens. I read an article on Zerohedge today that really hit the nail on the head. It illustrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that it doesn’t matter who wins, as long as the person that wins fits the mold of every puppet before. If someone steps outside of that mold “both” parties (I use the word ‘both’ loosely) attack that person. Why would they do that? The only reason you would see a combined attack is if they were both one. The article from Zerohedge was titled The Assault On Donald Trump Shows That The “2 Party System” Is Really A “1 Party System” and you can check it out by clicking on the link.

Why does this matter for us as traders? To me it illustrates the power struggle of this system, and the fact that it is a rigged game. You will continue to see the global economy be more and more controlled and the average person become more and more poor. I’m a strong proponent for being self employed and making your own way….obviously learning to trade for a living is at the top of that list. Things will only become more and more unstable for the foreseeable future world wide, and trusting in a job is going to continue to become increasingly more dangerous. No time like the present to make your own way forward. Done with the rant of the day, on to the market.

EUR/USD Rallies On Broad Dollar Weakness

During our trading hours the EUR/USD maintained a fairly tight range. Also during that time we did not produce a valid entry. From a longer term perspective you can see the daily chart is really compressing tighter and tighter on the EUR/USD as well. In order for the latest bounce from the daily lows to be confirmed I would need to see a break and hold above the 1.1100 level. Also it would help to see the COT data starting to show some buying pressure coming in on the Euro which has not been seen as of yet. For tomorrow I will still remain open on direction, and will continue to look for and trade any valid stop run from a listed manipulation point.

EUR/USD Chart - August 11th 2015

Is The GBP/USD Set To Finally Break Higher?

As I mentioned at the beginning of the week the Pound continued to show some buying pressure in the COT and today we had a very aggressive move up. Does this confirm the buying seen in the COT. In my opinion, no. The reason I say that is we have a lot of unanswered questions as to the way smart money is positioning after the Thursday and Friday data and therefore price action is going to be king until I see this Friday’s COT. If the buying pressure still holds or remains neutral at the worst then I would be more convinced of the eventual move up. If you look at a daily chart of the GBP/USD you will see a very choppy market. Another point to mention is the large stop run of the previous range lows. As of right now we have actually created a daily stop run of the range lows and that does give me a strong bias for the move up through the rest of this week. Because I do not take trades off of the daily chart I will still need to see a valid stop run off of one of the short term manipulation points in order to take a position.

GBP/USD Chart - August 11th 2015

Forex News For August 10th 2015

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 5:00 AM Eastern: This news has 90% of the time reversed after the initial spike. It has followed through in the direction of the news 30 minutes later but more often than not the initial move gets retraced for the short term at least. In the last 6+ months I have not seen a spike of more than 15 pips on the initial move so I would hold into this news if I was in a Euro position at the time of the release. The number is expected at 31.9 this month and a full 8 point move +/- will create a decent spike.


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