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Will The GBP/USD Retrace Hold? Forex Analysis 4/12/2016

Range Holds On EUR/USD

Another day passes and the Euro remains in a very tight range. Over the past few weeks we have seen the ADR on the EUR/USD decrease from over 100 pips to roughly 80 pips. Overall that has been roughly a 20-30% decrease in the average daily range in a very short period of time. If anyone looked at the COT data they noticed the continued buying pressure on the Euro which does make a break to the upside the higher probability. As I always say though, directional bias is NOT a reason to take a trade in my opinion. We still need to see a valid stop run from a high probability manipulation point. At this point our levels remain the same with one upper and one lower listed level.

EUR/USD Chart - April 12th 2016

Will The GBP/USD Retrace Hold?

As I talked about in yesterday’s forex commentary I do have a longer term bias to the downside but the short term push to the upside for a few days might occur. As you can see today we did indeed start pushing up on the short term basis. I do not feel like this move is expected to hold though. With that being said, according to the rules of the DTFL forex course, we have to call this a first push to the upside. Therefore, with today’s first push to the upside we have to look for the second push to the upside tomorrow. As such we only list lower levels from which to look for the second push to the upside. It is always critical to remember that directional bias is only the start, and we still need to see a stop run of a listed manipulation point to actually trigger the trade. This is extremely important, especially when a cycle breaks down and fails to continue.

GBP/USD Chart - April 12th 2016

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Forex Market News For April 12th 2016

UK CPI y/y 4:30 AM Eastern: CPI has seen fairly consistent follow through in the direction of the release but not right off the bat. What has happened is we see a spike in the direction of the release but then the market often pulls back through pre-release against the spike. After an hour or two we then see the market go in the direction of the release. If you are going to chase the release then I would get the entry at or below the pre-release price. For this month the y/y number is expected at .4%



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