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Will US Dollar Weakness Continue? 9/11/15 Forex Market Analysis

Pretty tame day in markets across the world. I did read one very concerning article on ZeroHedge. It was talking about the Comex and the amount of physical gold that can be delivered to the amount of paper gold that is traded. Over the last few months the number has skyrocketed from 100 oz to now over 200 oz of gold futures traded per 1 oz of physical that could be delivered. In reality the number of futures contracts that are physically delivered is extremely small. The same is true in the gold market. With that being said, the chart below is very concerning. Where is the gold and why is the Comex physical supply chart show massive out flows. You could definitely call me a conspiracy theorist…in fact I’m wearing my tin foil hat as we speak. With that being said the chart below should be extremely concerning to anyone who knows why people hoard gold. Gold is a worst case scenario investment. People don’t buy gold because they want to benefit from the rising value…they buy and hoard gold when they question the everything else. Something to think about as you look at the dollars in your bank account…

Comex Gold Cover Ratio Chart


EUR/USD Pushes Above Recent Range

The EUR/USD failed to show any continuation down off of the inverse trend channel I mentioned earlier this week. This bring up an extremely important point in regards to the trading strategy. Even with a stronger bias to the downside I never took a EUR/USD short over the last few days. The reason being is we never had a valid stop run off an upper manipulation point and therefore no trade was taken. Everyone has opinion but the concrete rules of the confirmation entry allow us to take as much emotion out of trading as possible and this is key to not letting a bias cause a loss.

Today my approach to trading the EUR/USD will remain the same. I will continue to look at manipulation points both above and below the price to trade from. I would be happy to go long or short depending on which side sets up. Looking at the chart below you can see there is only one upper level that I would look to go short from. That upper level is a critical point or what I sometimes refer to as a line in the sand on a short term basis. This will be a pivot point of sorts for tomorrow to take my bias from. As long as we remain below it I still favor the short. Should we break and hold above it then that bias will be to the upside.

EUR/USD Chart - September 11th 2015

Possible Third Push Up On GBP/USD

The Pound has given a possible third push up on our longer term weekly cycle and thus it does make the possibility of a reversal higher. With that being said anyone who reads this blog or is a member of Day Trading Forex Live knows that cycle is just a bias and is never the reason we take an entry. I would still need to see a valid stop run of an upper manipulation point to take a short from. The Pound has very limited manipulation points from which I would be willing to trade from today and that reduces the probability of seeing something set up. Its critical to to remember that quality is our main concern as quality is the key to our consistently profitable trading results. If you didn’t get a chance to look at the last 3 months worth of trading results then check out the links below. Hopefully those videos illustrate how patience in waiting for the correct setup is essential to successful trading.

May Trade Analysis and Results

June Trade Analysis and Results

July Trade Analysis and Results

With limited levels to work from at the start of the day it is important to remember we could see new levels created. For those of you who are members make sure to watch today’s video preview as I break down this point along with slightly more aggressive levels we can look to trade from today. Like I mentioned with the EUR/USD, any valid stop run from the pre-selected levels will be taken.

GBP/USD Chart - September 11th 2015

Forex News For September 11th 2015

US PPI 8:30 AM Eastern: This month -.1 is the expected number. This is really not a big game changer news item but it is capable of creating a 15+ pip spike.

US UoM Consumer Sentiment 10:00 AM Eastern: The vast majority of the time this will only create a small blip in the market for the Euro and the Pound but a huge deviation can create a sizeable move. In May we had a huge deviation that started a push of over 100 pips in the first hour. While it hard to say exactly how much was the news, it was the catalyst that started it.


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