Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD October 11, 2013
With the EUR/USD not making the push to the downside yesterday I expect that since its Friday we will see the week end flows run this pair today. There was no deal from the US secret meeting as of yet but Obummer didn’t reject the proposal hands down so there is still a glimmer of hope that something will get done. Even though what is on the table is just an extension to November it buys a month so we will have front row seats for the same circus then.
The democrats want something that runs into 2014 which seems unlikely at this point but is still possible. Lets just say it gets done and they get a budget for a year the most probable outcome when the time comes is yet again another circle jerk and more of the same. Like I have said many times this could easily go on for years as they hope and pray that the economy has an actual recovery that in all honesty I don’t see happening until somebody lets the correction happen, a bunch of the big boys go down and people responsible go to jail. Just my two cents worth. 🙂
If what we see is only week end flows today the higher probability for a break is to the upside or chop in this range today. I will be keeping an open mind and have a small bias for the short and if we get some clear trapping around 1.3541 where the hourly 200 ema sits just below I will be happy to take the trade. We do still have the push down and should be seeing the next one down in normal circumstances but with the US government shut down its likely that if they don’t come to a deal, any plan by the big boys will not be executed as they sit on the sidelines and wait it out. The best levels I see for manipulation to take a long are the lows at 1.3490 but there is also the 1.3506 level just above where price has had some good reactions. Any long will need to be clear enough to change my weak bias for the short though.
The GBP/USD has had similar price action staying in a chop for more than a day and has made a break and close above yesterdays highs during the Asian session. I don’t see the conviction during the Asian session as strong since it could also be a fake out as they accumulate position. Therefor unless it continues to the upside and has the close above during London it will confirm the conviction. It does show the potential for the Friday flows pushing price north but its too early to form a bias on it. If it does get the continuation upward then I will be willing to take the long from 1.5960 on a pullback during London or even yesterdays highs if it runs far enough during the Asian session.
Otherwise if I do miss the long I will be open for the short looking to see if they hold it at 1.6024 but the range between there and 1.6005 could stop it also. However if London keeps up the conviction to the upside I will pass on short setups.
Forex News Today
The calendar is rather bare of any significant news. There is German CPI figures before London open so with a large miss we may see a move but with expectations well below 2% then it would probably take a miss above that to get a decent manipulation move.
Later the US has University of Michigan Consumer sentiment but will most likely be ignored since there are bigger things going on. If we do get any significant news on the US deal then that will be what garners a push today. Otherwise the week end flows will run these pairs.
Have a great weekend
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