Analysis for EUR/USD, GBP/USD September 27, 2013
Since the EUR/USD didn’t give a second push yesterday the way to treat it is level three confusion at this point. The safest trades will be from the extremes of this range at 1.3536 and 1.3463 – 71. We do have 3 short term intraday pushes during the days price action yesterday which hints more toward another push down but the move was short yet again showing they don’t have much conviction on direction. Being Friday we are most likely going to see the end of week order flows and not get a push out of this range unless there is a tape bomb from one of the Fed speeches today. That being said the chance is low since none of the other speeches this week really gave a clue as to what the Fed will do next.
There is a decent level at 1.3511 for a potential aggressive entry short but if we do get the trap and entry there I wont be holding for a longer move and take profit at 40-50 pips around the lows. Otherwise the same goes for a long position with a stop run to the lows yesterday or Wednesday. I would prefer to see it around 1.3463 but with the support kicking in during the Asian session this morning around 1.3473 they may only run stops below there before a push up inside this range.
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The GBP/USD has similar price action but actually moved over 90 pips for an intraday push but the safer way to look at it since its still inside the range is no clear direction. We have potential fake outs to both sides below 1.5985 and above 1.6071 so it looks more like they are clearing out weak holders before they make the move. That most likely wont happen until next week though. Again the safer trades are at the extremes but there is the 1.6062 level in the middle I will consider an aggressive entry short at with some clear manipulation there. If they manage to push it there during Asia this morning the range will be big enough to take the short with some clear trapping of the breakout traders during the London session. Otherwise I will be waiting for the 1.6085 level to short or potentially take a long if we see the nice Asian range and the playing of breakout traders to the Asian lows with a good entry.
Forex News Today
The calendar is slow today other than a bunch of Central bank blowhards spewing hot air. Super Marion is up to bat along with the three Fed members so it could get interesting depending on what they say but it sure seems that they are all leashed up well other than Draghi who could easily do a Euro pump but will most likely do the dump with the Euro at these levels.
A friend of mine shared this video with me yesterday and it was so funny I had to post it. Enjoy.
Have a great weekend
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