Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD August 6, 2013
I had a sneaking suspicion that the EUR/USD wasn’t going to make the second intraday push yesterday and seems as though there is a concerted effort to keep it from breaching the psych 1.3300 level. I have to admit there is still a slight chance considering they couldn’t make the clear push down and has only made a daily range of 65 pips. Having said that I do still highly doubt there will be any breaking of the daily highs above 1.3417 any time soon and at most a test. Keep in mind that was the level when the ECB members started verbally intervening talking about the strength of the Euro all the while saying they “had no set target of exchange rate” and “the Euro is getting too strong” at the same time. Then Draghi put in his two cents worth and the EUR/USD dropped like a stone for two weeks. This tells me it will either chop around here for awhile or most likely drop down toward the daily 200 EMA and chop there.
I will not be having a bias on direction today and looking to see the trapping of traders at the key levels. If it can break to the upside here during the Asian session and keep above 1.3265 I will consider the short at 1.3300 with a clear stop run. However I am still holding a long from the US session yesterday after the manipulation to the 1.3250 level that just missed my stop while I was sleeping by about 4 pips and looks like I will be moving it to break even soon this morning. Therefore I will be giving this trade a chance to break those highs if it can manage to test them during London today. If it does come back and knock me out at break even I will consider reentering long with a stop run below yesterdays lows of 1.3232 being cautious of the 1.3220 level just below.
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The GBP/USD made the second long term push as expected yesterday so I will expect the third today to make an attempt to reach the recent highs at 1.5433. Having said that I will also be considering that they may only have the conviction to run it to the psych 1.5400 level and if I manage to get an entry I will be looking to take profits between 40-50 pips rather than expecting a break today. The best level I see for the long is the 1.5320 level where it was held up by the New York session yesterday. Having said that the Asian session lows will come into play if I see either the Asian range widen or them play the breakout traders to the highs first. Since they ran it straight out of the Asian box yesterday the chance of them doing that again today is substantially reduced as they almost never do the same thing twice.
Forex News Today
The calendar today don’t have any high impact events but there are a few medium ones of note that we could see some manipulation from with a significant miss. They start with Manufacturing and Industrial Production from the UK. Expectations are for a rise with these but the miss will need to be substantial since the UK is a service based economy. Later in the day there is NEISR GDP expected at .6% and if this manages a miss there will most likely be a move. Of course an upward miss GBP positive and the opposite for a downside miss.
The Euro Zone has German Factory Orders expected to rise above zero. If this surprises in either direction there should be some movement. I expect a larger move if its worse than expected since it will show the Euro strength is hurting Germany and they will be wanting to correct that.
The US don’t have anything significant and with the US Euro pump waning these days its hard to expect considering the levels the Euro is at.
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