Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD March 22, 2013
Here we are at the end of the week and still have no clear direction on the EUR/USD. I cant say I am surprised but this whole Cyprus fiasco should have driven this thing down more than it has. All news points to the ECB and Troika letting these guys fail and it seems the Russians are playing their hand well and waiting for the collapse so they can get their hands on Cyprus energy for bargain basement prices. Well played indeed I have to admit.
I did end up taking the short I was talking about in the live London session at the 15 minute 200 EMA. Since it was coming rather close to the NY open I wanted a picky entry and I set a pending at 1.2925 that was hit about 30 minutes into the NY session. Of course it ran down and missed my initial 50 pip TP only to come back and hit me break even yet again. I have to admit I was rather convinced it was going to break to the downside so I did move the TP to a more ambitious level just above the ADR since if it was going to hit 50 pips below the lows it would most likely have more room down and I was watching it to see how it reacted at the lows. Needless to say it never reached the lows and today I sit with yet another break even trade this week. No worries though I stuck with my trade plan and didn’t take a hit and that is what matters most.
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I cant say I expect too much movement today so if I do get a trade I will be happy to settle with a 40 pip run and call it a good week. The levels have moved around a little bit and the first one I will be looking to short from is the 1.2932 break out proven as resistance and if that dont show clear manipulation yesterdays highs will be the next level I look to short from. Of course I will be open for a long with a clear 1 hour stop run to yesterdays lows around 1.2880 but again I do prefer a short today.
The GBP/USD has shown at least a first push up and possibly two. I dont like counting the emotional news pushes as members know so I am looking at this as the first push and the way the daily chart closed also agrees that the reversal may have some momentum. The levels I will be looking for the long are 1.5164 to begin with. as you can see I also added in the 50 EMA (orange) to show you where the 200 EMA lands on the 15 minute chart and that will be the next level I look for a long position at if the 64 level dont show the manipulation. I am not ruling out a short position today but will only be considering it if I am not already long and we get a clear 1 hour stop run to the highs.
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Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are light today so I expect there may be more volatility if we get any news from Cyprus. I have my doubts there will be much since it looks like all efforts have failed and they are just waiting for the collapse. Check out this article with some notes from the conference call last night.
Otherwise there is German IFO Business Climate early in the London session. Along with German Current Assessment and German Business Expectations. All are expected to rise slightly but the way I see it with the PMI figures dipping below the 50 level yesterday these has a higher chance of disappointing than missing to the upside. Of course nothing surprises me these days but that’s the higher probability.
Have a great weekend
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