Analysis of EUR/USD, GBP/USD May 14, 2013
The EUR/USD has started the reversal this morning rather than making any headway yesterday. The plan ended up being to finish the third push on the GBP/USD while the EUR/USD held a tighter range. The move this morning seems to be started from the news that the UK will be holding a referendum on exiting the European Union. Of course its most likely just more manipulation but what ever gives them the reason to follow through with the original plan the better the move will be. At this point I will expect this push to be finished out during the London session today and with the Asian range already at 50 pips the most likely scenario will be a retrace to yesterdays highs during the London session (after playing the break out traders) for the manipulation at the 1.3000 level. I will also be watching the 1.3009 level but in order to enter there price will need to leave the Asian box close to its highs and the trapping patterns will need to be clear.
I will also mention that the 85 pip move from yesterdays lows could also be a false push so I will be open for the short with a stop run above the 1.3049 level. The best case for this would be to see the 1 hour stop run that shows some manipulation candle patterns on the 15minute chart.
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The GBP/USD has also started its reversal after making the third push yesterday but with the EUR/GBP moving this morning also the extent of the push on the GU has been limited. My bias here is for the reversal also but I will be open for the short since it is in the third push chop potentially. I would rather see a false push before I think about shorting so the best level for that will be at the 4 hour 200 EMA at 1.5381. The levels I will be looking for the long at will be the 1.5300 psych level if price cant push further up during the Asian session this morning. If the trapping is not clear there then I will be waiting for a test of yesterdays lows and a clearer bottoming formation to go long from preferably with a stop run.
Forex News Today
Scheduled releases are light again today with only German and Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment during the London session. Expectations are for a decent move to the upside so a disappointment will most likely create a larger move. There is also the ECOFIN Meetings today so watch out for any tape bombs there. It sure seems like they are getting closer to a real banking union so my guess is that will be pumped up and the “all is well” charade will continue.
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